State of the Market: Mining Q2-2024

Base metals prices rallied in the second quarter fueled by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, stimulus measures in China and speculative interest in the copper market. Driven by a short squeeze on the COMEX futures exchange, the LME 3M copper price hit a record high of $10,930/t on May 20. Prices pulled back on a stronger dollar and looser fundamentals, including mounting inventories and lackluster demand in China, countered by tightening supply of copper and zinc concentrates.  Entering the September quarter, a risk-off tone helped the LBMA gold price surpass a record $2,480/oz on July 17 spurred by dramatic US election-related events, renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts, and continuing international geopolitical upheaval. Looking ahead into the second half of the year, industrial metals prices are expected to come under pressure from trade tensions, uncertainties around China’s economic growth and the upcoming US elections. The combination of geopolitical tensions and the prospect of rate cuts, however, should keep gold prices strong.

Strong metal prices boosted exploration metrics in the early half of the June quarter, with the April and May pipeline activity indexes rebounding from a multiyear low recorded in March. With some metals prices stalling mid-quarter, the sector saw a pullback in financing levels in June, while drilling activity also slowed resulting in a June low not seen since 2020.

Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the June 2024 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss key trends and topics:

• Commodity price trends, drivers, and estimates
• Mergers and acquisitions, mining financing
• Exploration and development metrics