Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Long War
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its second year, what can we expect from the changing risk environment and its impacts on industries globally? Read our insights and learn how you can stay ahead with our analysis.
REPORT
World Trade Grain Outlook — Trends and Forecast
The year 2022 was marked by food crises caused by prices rising for a long time. The factor that contributed significantly to price increases was the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The situation had improved, thanks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed in July 2022, which operated until July this year, when Russia decided not to extend it.
Gain vital insights into the world trade grain outlook.
Crude Oil Market
Will mainland China and India gain from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Recently, there have been quite large changes on the world markets from the point of view of exports/imports of crude oil and petroleum products. This situation is undoubtedly influenced by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which changed the flows of exports and imports of this raw material.
According to the Market Intelligence GTAS Forecasting, Saudi Arabia is the main oil exporter followed by the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Iraq, United States, Russia, Mexico, Norway, Kuwait and Nigeria. The total share of these countries in world exports (in nominal terms) was 71.4% in 2022 and it is forecast to decrease to 71.1% by 2025.
Producers, analysts clash over market risk from Russian aluminum stockpiles
Aluminum producers in the US and Europe have suggested that stockpiles of Russian aluminum in London Metal Exchange warehouses are distorting global aluminum prices and that the disconnect is poised to get worse as the metal stock grows.
Arms Trade Analysis
Is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict accelerating the arms race?
Looking at imports of tanks and other armored fighting vehicles from the perspective of individual countries, the main importers in 2022 were Saudi Arabia, the United States, Kuwait, Poland and the United Kingdom. The total share of these countries in global imports was 55%, and this share is expected to increase to over 61% by 2025. The largest increase in 2022 compared with the previous one was recorded by Poland, from 1.0% in 2005 to 7.1% in 2022 with upward trend and with an increase to 12.4% in 2025.
U.S. FinCEN & BIS High Priority Items List – Trade Patterns for Russian Battlefield Electronics
The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued a joint alert regarding the proliferation of certain 'high priority goods' being exported and transshipped to Russia in order to support its war effort in Ukraine.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence (Global Trade Analytics Suite). Date as of July 10, 2023
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