US Economic Modeling and Forecasting Services
The combination of two award-winning forecast groups, Macroeconomic Advisers® by S&P Global Market Intelligence, and the IHS Markit economics unit, means we now offer our customers a full suite of economic modeling services and software. Developed and licensed by Macroeconomic Advisers, the best-in-class US macro model complements our existing global and US regional modeling expertise. Find short- and long-term forecasts, with alternative outlooks, featuring superb transparency and coverage:
Key Features
Consistency
Access US national, state and metro forecasts that rely on our award-winning US Macro Model
Timeliness
Improve forecast accuracy with quarterly-updated US and monthly-updated regional models and analysis, including continuously released perspectives, briefings and watches
Expertise
Leverage the unique S&P Global knowledge base spanning numerous industries to inform and adjust model inputs
Horizon
Choose from short, medium and long-term outlooks
Specialization
Connect with our 16 national and consumer economists and 10 regional economists for forecasting assistance
Methodology
Achieve more accurate forecasts with our individually modeled state and metro forecast series and expert-reviewed model outputs to account and adjust for recent, relevant local developments
Alternative Scenarios
Receive the optimistic and pessimistic alternative outlook to our national, state and metro forecasts and financial stress testing
Types of Questions Our Models Can Answer
- How fast is the economy (employment, unemployment, inflation, equities, rates) likely to grow over the next quarter, year, decade?
- How does a particular data release affect the outlook?
- How inflation-prone is the US economy?
- When will the Fed next raise rates? How does the balance sheet policy impact the pace of tightening? What are the implications of higher rates on economic growth?
- Is the market appropriately pricing the timing of the next Federal Reserve move?
- How will financial market returns be impacted by Federal Reserve policy?
- Where are labor markets strongest in the United States?
- What will consumers be spending their money on in five years?
- How would a government shutdown affect the US economy?
- Which sectors are likely to drive a recovery? What warning signs should market participants follow?
- How would alternative outcomes affect the S&P Global forecast?
US Macro Model
Underpinning each of our forecasts, our award-winning US Macro Model is a large-scale, structural econometric model that is grounded in mainstream economic theory and estimated by modern econometric techniques. The model explains entries from all major tables of the National Income and Product Accounts and provides a wealth of detail on prices, labor markets, financial markets and the household balance sheet. In addition, it affords users considerable flexibility in specifying monetary and fiscal policies.
Our economists can help you:
- Construct alternative scenarios, including those consistent with your own organization's view
- Choose from 2,000 economic, financial and business concepts
- Measure change in the economy's composition
- Incorporate short-run aggregate demand and long-term aggregate supply into equations
Comprehensive Coverage
US Regional Model
The US Regional Model enables you to forecast population, income and industry activity across 9 regions, all 50 states, 380+ metropolitan areas and 3,100+ counties. Marketing and sales professionals use this model to set internal sales targets while government economists use it to predict the economic impact of polices or events, such as new investments or natural disasters, on regions, states, cities or counties.
Our economists can help you:
- Construct alternative scenarios, including those consistent with your own organization's view
- Choose from 300+ economic, financial and business concepts
- Measure change in the economy's composition
- Incorporate short-run aggregate demand and long-term aggregate supply into equations
Comprehensive Coverage
Alternative US and Global Scenarios
Financial institutions needing to understand their total risk profile use our proven model-based macro scenarios to conduct rigorous stress tests that meet regulatory requirements, provide transparency and promote confidence in existing business practices.
Global Link Model
Quantify the impact of global economic change on your company's performance with the Global Link Model (GLM), the most comprehensive model of its kind that is commercially available. Updated quarterly, the GLM links 68 individual country models with each other and with key global drivers of performance to produce 30-year forecasts, covering more countries and time series – 250 to 500 per country – than any other market offering.
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