Country Default Risk Solutions
Assess and compare country default risk over the short (1 year) and medium term (5 year) time horizons.
Whether you are in banking, insurance, portfolio management, or a company engaged in cross-border trade, our Country Default Risk (CDR) solution enables you to compare and assess credit risks and non-payments risk for 206 economies.
Our comprehensive service provides a robust analysis of our own independent risk scores for 206 countries, reporting on the big three ratings of the ratings agencies of record, as well as a benchmark consensus score. Access to our team of risk experts as well as Headline Analysis articles allows you to stay ahead of emerging risks in an unparalleled list of geographies. Our unique short-term (1 year score) default risk assessments are tailored for risks to trade finance and cross-border money market lines; while our medium-term (5 year) risk assessment assesses longer-term financial risk to exposures like project finance and direct equity investments.
Our country default risk solution helps you to:
- Anticipate emerging credit risks
- Establish and update exposure limits
- Assess changing credit risks down the entire timeline from short- to medium-to-long term
- Conduct financial investment due diligence from an independent, objective source
The CDR model provides a concise, transparent framework to identify, measure, and monitor sovereign-level default risks according to timeline, from the short term (one-year score horizon) to the medium term (five-year score horizon). Our Country Default Risk Service (CDRS) measures overall credit risk conditions at the sovereign level, considering liquidity, solvency, economic and political risks. The CDRS does not target any specific bond or other legally defined financial instrument; rather, it assesses the creditworthiness of sovereign-level liabilities and guarantees using a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors. The numerical CDR scores (on a scale of 0-100) are generated in a systematic and consistent manner using a transparent analytical model, crucially supported by, and fully integrated into the cycle of, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s quarterly macroeconomic forecasts. Therefore, the CDR scores are re-assessed according to the forecasts every quarter and they are re-evaluated on an ad hoc basis as the situation demands.
The CDR scores are produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global. S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of CDR scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Visualize and analyze risk score changes to assess stability and creditworthiness
What's Included
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Data and Analysis
Debt Statistics & Financial Ratio Data
Based on the latest data releases and solid economic forecasts, our country default risk solution provides excel spreadsheets with detailed balance sheet and debt figures for 206 economies, including external liquidity and solvency ratios from 1999 to the present and a five-year forecast. Our financial risk metrics are derived from this detailed forecast of each economy's external finances, relevant domestic finances, and key macroeconomic growth indicators.Country Default Risk Table
Calculations of each economy's creditworthiness, based on financial, economic, and political attributes are numerical scores on a zero-to-100 scale corresponding to the probability of default. Our short-term (1 year) scores focus more on liquidity criteria, where the medium-term (5 year) scores also take into account solvency ratios as well as qualitative political, economic, and governance impacts.Country Default Risk Report
Detailed reports present all the key liquidity and solvency ratios for each of the 206 economies we score.Country Default Risk Scores
Short (1-year) - and medium-term (5-year) risk scores for each economy. These are updated on a quarterly basis using our latest economic forecast data, which makes it possible to capture emerging risks or positive inflection points on a timely basis.Peer Group Rankings
Tool to rank economies by sovereign risk within specific peer groupsHeadline Analysis
Daily coverage of key financial risk events that impact an economy's sovereign debt situation (trade, debt data) as well as any changes to our country default risk scores. The team also reports on the major credit rating agencies ratings changes.Ratings Agencies Monthly Monitor
Compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Ratings Agencies Monthly Monitor reports on all the sovereign risk rating actions of major international credit rating agencies (S&P Global, Fitch and Moody’s) during the previous month.
Country Default Risk Review
Quarterly newsletter includes coverage of emerging issues that could affect default risk for countries/territories. A Watch List draws attention to countries/territories that our analysts are focused on over the next few months where the sovereign risk position remains in flux or in the balance. In addition, the Capital Markets section discusses recent trends in emerging market bond markets. The newsletter will continue to cover all our team’s score changes over the past quarter.
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Methodology
- The country default risk scores are generated in a systematic and consistent manner using a comprehensive and transparent analytical model based on the actual experiences of global lending institutions
- The risk scores are numeric scores on a zero-to-100 scale corresponding to the probability of default.
- The country default risk scores are based on a detailed assessment of each economy's key liquidity and solvency ratios.
- Financial risk metrics are derived from our extensive dataset containing highly detailed information on each economy’s external finances, relevant domestic finances, and key macroeconomic indicators.
- In the short-term analytical model, liquidity risk metrics play the dominant role, whereas in the medium-term model the assessment also takes into account solvency ratios and qualitative attributes, such as each economy’s economic and political structures and policy performance.
- The macroeconomic inputs and assumptions are taken directly from our quarterly detailed external debt forecasts for 206 economies.
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Delivery Platforms
Connect: Maximize your subscription with Connect – our state-of-the-art business intelligence platform that gives you 24/7 access to your solutions
Default risk content also available through the CONNECT API
- Headline analysis
- Risk and score table and map for comparison of ratings over time and across all 206 economies
- Full and transparent access to detailed scoring allows for a deeper understanding of fundamentals impacting creditworthiness (debt load, interested payments)
- Detailed reports for all 206 economies describe fundamentals behind sovereign risk scores
- Download forecast and historical data behind the ratings and create customizable, refreshable spreadsheets with our Data Browser
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Member Privileges
Analyst Access
Access to our team of country default risk expertsCountry Risk Webcasts
Webcasts on key events and trends, with Q&A delivered by leading experts
Research and Analysis
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