US Monthly GDP Index for January 2023

Monthly US GDP rose 0.3% in January following a 0.4% decline in December. The increase in January was more than accounted for by a sharp gain in personal consumption expenditures. Also contributing to the gain were less consequential increases in nonresidential fixed investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. These and other gains were partially offset by declines in inventory investment and net exports. The level of GDP in January was 0.9% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of a modest, 0.4% annualized decline in GDP in the first quarter are declines in monthly GDP in February and March that average 0.3% per month (not annualized).

S&P Global Market Intelligence's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.