US importers dabbling in frontloading ahead of new tariff threat

US importers are better prepared for the imminent tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has promised to slap on goods from China, yet the majority don’t seem to be significantly rushing orders to get those goods across the docks ahead of his inauguration. Rather, tariff fears are just one of several factors pushing US importers to book more than usual during this extended peak season.

In Trump’s first term, US importers were at first unsure how serious the president was about following through with his tariff threats; indeed, he was very serious. In his second term, it’s less a question of “if” and more “when” Trump will implement harsher tariffs on China, which he says will be higher than 60%.

The extent to which US importers frontload ocean cargoes has implications for shipping price and service. Trump’s first term was marked by three waves of escalating US tariffs on Chinese goods and two postponements of implementations. That created five periods in which US importers moved goods earlier, artificially creating demand that fueled differing degrees of spot rate volatility and pulled down ocean reliability. And, to a lesser degree, slowed cargo flow through ports.

This time, however, knowing that more tariffs will be a reality rather than a possibility gives shippers a firmer base to scope out potential responses and make plans, said Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.

There’s also some degree of knowing what types of goods are first in the firing line for higher US tariffs, given the first Trump administration in December 2019 suspended tariffs targeting imports of mobile phones and laptops from China. Such high-value items could easily be moved via faster air transport rather than ocean shipping to narrowly avoid any tariff deadline.

Multiple factors drive booking bump

Based on discussions with three cargo owners and various forwarders, a degree of frontloading to avoid imminent Chinese tariffs is occurring and will continue. The logistics directors at three midsize importers said they had an internal goal to get more goods from China into US ports by Jan. 1.

“We are experiencing an overwhelming surge in booking demands, with available space becoming increasingly constrained for both the USWC and the USEC,” Marc Meier, global head of ocean freight at Toll Global Forwarding, told the Journal of Commerce.

The stronger-than-normal booking demand, Meier said, was due to a litany of factors: Chinese tariff fears, strong blank sailings and the looming Jan. 15 deadline for longshore workers and employers to reach a deal or risk another strike along the US East and Gulf coasts.

Beyond knowing that tariffs are coming, US importers have higher carrying costs than they did during Trump’s first term, thanks to higher interest rates. The more elevated prices to store goods will prompt some importers to be more conservative with just how much they frontload.

How much of that frontloading is fueled by importers moving goods to avoid the strike threat and earlier Lunar New Year celebrations is unclear. Chinese factories stall or slow production during the nearly two-week holiday period that next year begins on Jan. 29.

US import bookings out of China haven’t jumped despite the tariff threat, according to logistics software provider e2open.

“While November has seen a slight uptick compared to October, this is likely due to the lower order volume during China’s Golden Week holiday in October,” e2open said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.

US imports from Asia were up 10.5% year over year in October, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global.

Stephen Nothdurft, vice president of North America sales at forwarder MOL Consolidation Service, said tariffs were playing just “a bit of a role” in extending peak season volumes. He also expected importers dependent on the East and Gulf coasts to wait out the Jan. 15 deadline.

“Nobody is looking to rush to get crazily ahead of this East Coast situation,” he said. “[And] nobody is charging forward on the tariff [risk].”

That seems to be the sentiment of approximately 100 shippers polled by Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley's managing director and lead analyst for North American freight transportation. More than 70% of those polled said they didn’t plan to restock differently due to Trump winning a second term.

Of those shippers, a little more than a third said they are considering “moderating or significantly” increasing inventories ahead of tariffs while an amazing 42% of shippers don’t expect to change behavior in the face of impending tariffs.

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