US exporters see rise in canceled orders from Chinese buyers amid trade war

Chinese buyers have begun to cancel orders of goods and commodities from US exporters amid the escalating trade conflict between the two nations, and stakeholders expect the cancellations to continue until the battle over tariffs is resolved.

Exporters also expect they will need redirect their cargo to other Asian countries to make up for the diminished Chinese market.

M. Can Fidan, vice president of business development at New York-based MTS Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce he’s already seen the cancellation of 250 polymers containers and another customer’s entire fertilizer order.

“If these tariffs stay, there is no way China will keep buying these products from us,” said Fidan.

The export decline is already showing up in data. Bookings for US exports to China for the week of April 8–15 were down 5.4% from the prior week at 17,220 TEUs, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet.

Two exporters, five forwarders and the head of a shipping group who spoke to the Journal of Commerce said a further drop in China-bound volumes is inevitable if tariffs on China persist, mirroring the market shift already observed with imports.

“If they had contracts to [export containers to China], my assumption would be that a lot of them would likely be canceled,” one exporter said.

Another non-vessel-operating common carrier source said they are seeing cancellations on many China-bound exports, especially goods with lower margins where the buyers cannot afford the additional cost. At the same time, the source is seeing sellers of more valuable commodities attempt to pass down the cost to their customers.

Meanwhile, several forwarders said demand is strong from other countries that have had their reciprocal US import tariffs paused for 90 days. Shippers and forwarders are forecasting a pickup in export cargo volumes bound for other Southeast Asia countries.

“In [the] short term, I think we’re going to see a lot of agriculture sourcing shift [from China] to other countries,” said Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC). Friedmann said he is also seeing canceled China-bound shipments in the agriculture sector.

Shippers agreed that US exporters — and farmers in particular — are especially vulnerable to the new tariffs and reciprocal responses from China, adding that the impacts from tariffs implemented during President Donald Trump’s first term can still be felt in many markets.

“We’re obviously really concerned,” said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soybean Transportation Coalition. “People have been debating about the impact of these tariffs, [and] some people will say [that we’re speculating] ... It’s not speculation. It’s recollection. When we look at what happened in 2018 and 2019, we still haven’t recovered.”

Cold chain stability, for now

Despite the tariff-related hurdles for many US exporters, there are still calm spots, for now. A forwarding source in refrigerated exports said the cold chain market has been largely stable thus far.

“We haven’t really seen such a change when it comes to the tariffs because these are planned so far ahead, and production is scheduled around them,” said the forwarder, who added that impacts to even their China-bound shipments were minimal.

Friedmann agreed that many time-sensitive agriculture exports are less flexible, so many shipments are still moving forward. But they are being met with the potential for schedule reliability hurdles.

“A lot of the steamship lines are canceling, blanking, delaying, [and] changing routes,” he said. “So, we are not going to have the same ocean transportation options we’re used to. Even if [customers] want to buy it, we’re still going to have increased difficulty delivering it.”

Originally published in the Journal of Commerce, April 16, 2025

For more insights on the impact on shipping, join us at Breakbulk and Project Cargo 2025 in New Orleans 

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.