BLOG — Apr 17, 2025
Tariff trouble: Playground prices set to rise as kids' goods supply chains face duties
By Chris Rogers, Ines Nastali, and Eric Oak
The application of wide-ranging import duties by the US government brings both tactical and strategic supply chain decision-making challenges for all sectors, but particularly those with a high level of reliance of US imports on mainland China.
The latest adaptation in the tariff code includes an extension of the exceptions to “reciprocal” duties to include smartphones and computers, which raises the prospect of adjustments for other sectors.
The retail subsectors covering products for children are particularly heavily exposed to imports from mainland China and Mexico and therefore have some of the highest tariff rate increases under the Trump administration so far.
The average tariff rate on infant furniture, which includes duties from the prior Trump administration, is likely equal to 128.8% while infant clothing is nearer 41.3%. For older kids, the holidays may become more expensive with tariffs on videogame consoles set to reach 126.4% while toys more broadly could reach 113.4%.
Timing for shipments could drive tariff cut need; price rises if not
Putting aside the optics of tariffs on products for infants and children, the feed-through of higher consumer spending costs in the critical holiday shopping season may provide a catalyst to a review of tariff coverage.
Infant food may be the least exposed category. The EU and UK accounted for 72.7% of the total US$391 million of imports with a further 20.8% from Mexico. As a result, the average duty – even assuming no USMCA-compliance – is 13.1%. The products are not particularly seasonal and putting aside branding, a move to the US may be possible.
Infant furniture meanwhile has faced tariffs before, included in the 25% Section 301 “List 3” duties on imports from mainland China applied in 2019 under the first Trump administration. As a result, mainland China’s share of US imports fell to a (still considerable) 73.6% from 89.6% in 2017 with some reshoring largely to Vietnam and Mexico (8.8% and 7.2% respectively). The high proportion of imports from mainland China means the average tariff on infant furniture, assuming no USMCA free trade-compliant products, could reach as much as 128.8%.
For other child-focused products the matter of timing is more important.
Isolating clothes that are precisely kid-focused is challenging under the US tariff code, though 25.2% of all clothes were sourced from mainland China. In the case of baby garments where there are separate tariff codes, mainland China represented 21.2% of imports. They were also already subject to 7.5% “List 4A”, Section 301 duties. As a result, infant clothing tariffs will be 41.3% while all apparel including footwear will be 46.4%.
In the case of toys, mainland China is a dominant supplier including 86.1% of videogame consoles, which haven’t benefited from other consumer electronics reprieve, while for regular toys, mainland China had a 75.8% share. As a result, tariffs on videogame consoles will be 126.4% while on toys they will be 113.4%.
From a timing perspective, seaborne imports of kids’ clothes normally peak in the back-to-school season of July and August. That will require purchase decisions to be made by May.
In the case of regular toys, imports peak in September/October, providing a little extra time to judge where tariffs may land, though not as far as the end of the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which runs through mid-July.
Inventory strategies appear to have been less heavily leveraged.
Early shipments in kids-related products were minimal ahead of the “reciprocal” tariff announcements. US imports of infant formula were up by just 0.4% and furniture down 4.9% in the three months to Feb. 28, 2025.
There has been a pickup in kids and regular clothing of 9.7% and 12.3% respectively, while off-peak toys are growing more quickly after a downturn last year. More recently, seaborne-only data shows kids clothing picking up to 16.3% year-over-year growth in March in 2025, while toys slowed to 4.9% growth.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.