5G tracker: 79 markets worldwide have commercial services

Introduction

After a significant ramp-up of launches in 2020, commercial 5G network introductions numbered just 37 in 2021 compared with 97 launches in 2020, according to Kagan data. Unlike 2020, which saw big carriers roll out 5G networks in major international markets, 2021 can be characterized as 5G networks trickling down into smaller countries. Some of these countries had seen a delay in spectrum auctions thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, while carriers in other countries had not seen a competitive or cost necessity to roll out 5G until later. 5G networks came to 16 new countries in 2021. In all, operators around the world have deployed 196 5G networks in 79 markets, according to Kagan estimates.

* 5G deployments slowed in 2021 from aggressive build-outs in 2020 as the technology made its way to smaller countries that are typically technology followers.

* Stand-alone 5G networks number just 23 as the carrier industry demand for stand-alone-based services remains low.

* Ericsson claimed 170 commercial 5G contracts, most notably 109 live 5G networks in 48 countries. The company reached a key benchmark in December 2021, becoming the first system vendor to reach 100 5G live networks.

* Nokia claims 214 commercial 5G deals and 74 live 5G networks supported.

Latin America, typically lagging in the adoption of the newest generation of wireless technology, saw nearly half of its total deployments happen in 2021 (nine out of 22), with six deployments in December 2021 alone. In Europe, 15 operators launched networks primarily in smaller countries such as Andorra, Croatia, Malta and Slovenia. In the Asia-Pacific region, countries such as Bhutan, Bangladesh and Indonesia saw 5G deployments for the first time.

Vodafone Group PLC and its affiliates still have the widest 5G footprint of 18 markets as of December 2021, with Chile (December 2021), Oman (December 2021) and Portugal (November 2021) as the latest additions. CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. and its affiliates have commercial 5G in eight markets, including most recently Indonesia (June 2021).

Most deployments are still in non-stand-alone, or NSA, mode, with just 19 operators having launched stand-alone, or SA, 5G by the end of 2021. The initial rollouts of NSA mode 5G networks pair a 5G radio access network, or RAN, with the LTE evolved packet core. An SA 5G network requires carriers to rework the core technology to a cloud-based architecture, virtualizing network functions and providing a greater range of 5G functions, including ultra-low latency and higher capacity. These features will be required to enable services such as autonomous cars, precision robotics and specialized internet of things.

We expect SA networks to continue their slow pace of adoption in 2022, as SA features have not been heavily demanded by enterprise customers. Even more robust features will require SA in conjunction with mobile edge computing, and many operators are in the process of exploring their mobile edge computing options.

5G vendor highlights

According to our data spanning December 2017 through December 2021, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) and Nokia Corp. continue to have the largest footprints worldwide in terms of total 5G customer wins and commercial deployments. The most important indicator of vendor traction in our view is the number of 5G live networks supported. Not all vendors have disclosed these metrics, but both Ericsson and Nokia have been the most forthcoming — and aggressive — in citing their respective customer successes, listing 5G live networks, commercial 5G contracts/deals, 5G wins and/or deployments with telecom service providers and enterprise/private network implementations.

In terms of cumulative 5G small cell shipments, Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. remains the overall market leader, thanks primarily to the vendor's dominance of its massive Chinese home market, where total small cell shipments dwarf those of other countries and regions. Huawei claims to have more than 1,000 ''corporate" 5G contracts across 20 industries — clearly inclusive of enterprise/private networks — yet the vendor has not cited a specific count for wireless operator contracts.

At Huawei's April 2021 Global Analyst Summit, the vendor cited 50 commercial 5G contracts but also claimed to have built over 140 5G networks in 59 countries. Then, as now, no breakout of mobile operator versus enterprise customers was provided by the vendor. But even with Huawei's customer losses due to geopolitical pressures from the U.S. and Western-allied countries, it is safe to estimate that Huawei has approximately 100 mobile operator customers worldwide. However, with Huawei not disclosing an official operator count, Ericsson was able to lay claim to being the first vendor to reach 100 5G operator accounts.

As of December 2021, China has deployed more than 1.3 million 5G base stations, according to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, or MIIT, for a density of one 5G base station per 1,100 people. The MIIT recently announced plans to triple 5G base stations to 3.6 million by the end of 2025. By comparison, the U.S. surpassed 100,000 5G base stations by mid-2021 for a density of one 5G small cell per 3,300 people — about one-third the density claimed by China.

Huawei and ZTE Corp. account for the vast majority of 5G small cell and RAN deployments in China. In fact, China Mobile's most recently announced 5G supplier contract wins in October 2021 were led by Huawei and ZTE, with Datang Telecom Technology Co. Ltd. also winning portions of these contracts. Also worth mentioning are the respective 10% portions won by both Ericsson and Nokia, undoubtedly awarded to both keep the Chinese vendors on their toes, and to compare/contrast the 5G technologies of Ericsson and Nokia against home-grown vendor solutions.

Meanwhile, Ericsson had another strong year on the 5G customer acquisition front. As of this writing, Ericsson claimed 170 commercial 5G contracts, most notably 109 live 5G networks in 48 countries. Ericsson reached a key benchmark in December 2021, becoming the first system vendor to reach 100 5G live networks. This makes sense as in August 2020, Ericsson was also the first vendor to reach 100 commercial contracts. Ericsson's customer milestones are a direct reflection of its success in every global region, including China. The presence of western vendors in China, however, is likely to be limited moving forward; during 2021 the Chinese government implemented retaliatory measures to counter Western-government restrictions on Chinese-branded 5G equipment.

Along with Ericsson, Nokia Corporation has also generated increasing traction in the global 5G infrastructure market. As of this writing, Nokia claims 214 commercial 5G deals and 74 live 5G networks supported. This includes 96 5G contracts with service providers, specifically, 15 in the Americas, 46 in Europe, 26 in Asia-Pacific and nine in the Middle East/Africa. On the technology research and development front, Nokia also reached an important milestone for the company in November 2021, with 4,000 patent families rated as standard essential patents to 5G. Nokia asserts that this ranks the company No. 1 in 5G patents.

After Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, ZTE Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. account for the remainder of the global 5G systems shipped into and deployed in wireless operator networks. ZTE faces the same geopolitical/national security-based challenges as Huawei. As a result, ZTE's customer roster remains relatively limited with an estimated 60 contracts with mobile operators, despite its traction in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Samsung has improved its position over the past two years as wireless operators seek out a third top-tier 5G system vendor supplier to replace Huawei and ZTE equipment and to balance the competitive landscape against Ericsson and Nokia.

Samsung also brings with it a wealth of 5G experience in the advanced South Korean market. But in addition to its home market success, Samsung has garnered major 5G contract deployments in Japan with KDDI Corp. and NTT DOCOMO INC. and in Canada with SaskTel Company and Videotron Ltd. Outside South Korea, Samsung's highest-profile operator validations have come from Vodafone UK Ltd. in June 2021 and Verizon Communications Inc. in the first quarter of 2021. Specifically, Verizon was the first mobile operator to commercialize a fully virtualized RAN, or vRAN, system, while Vodafone UK and its parent Vodafone will also leverage Samsung's vRAN solution set to scale its Open RAN system in Europe to support more than 2,500 sites.

^{This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.}