Maritime Chokepoints Tighten, Global Supply Chain Risk Rises

Rerouting from the Strait of Hormuz is increasing pressure on secondary maritime chokepoints, including the Panama Canal and Malacca Strait. This is creating geographically diffuse supply chain risk, where network congestion—rather than a single point of failure—is becoming the primary channel for global trade disruption.

Weather-related events and competition for transit during peak shipping season are expected to amplify these risks in the coming months.

As peak shipping season approaches, the spillover effects from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are no longer contained. Increased tanker traffic and weather-driven constraints are tightening capacity at the Panama Canal and Malacca Strait. This dynamic means simple rerouting strategies are becoming less effective, and firms must now account for broader, interconnected network risks that extend beyond a single geopolitical flashpoint.

Pressure building beyond Hormuz 

As peak season approaches, pressure is building across global maritime chokepoints beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Panama Canal traffic shifts 

Panama Canal traffic rose sharply in March, with more modest growth through the Malacca Strait. The canal is operating at full capacity, and traffic composition has shifted. Tankers accounted for more than one-third of transits in March, overtaking container ships, amid stronger demand for US LNG linked to the Iran conflict.

Inventory and weather risks 

Although Panama Canal current water levels support higher transit volumes, depleted global oil and gas inventories and rising tanker flows raise congestion risks into peak season. These risks are amplified by a high probability of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, which could reduce rainfall in Central America and constrain Panama Canal transit slots months after.

Increased regional traffic 

Traffic through the Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb strait also increased month-over-month in March.

Tropical storms as bottlenecks 

In many regards, tropical storms can be considered as another form of shipping bottleneck, adding to the uncertainty caused by geopolitics and other weather systems such as El Niño. Such impacts hit unevenly, however, particularly as El Niño tend to coincide with weaker hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic while increasing storms and rainfall volatility elsewhere.

Atlantic storm season and peak season overlap 

The peak storm season in the North Atlantic typically runs from June onward each year with a peak in September. That coincides with arrivals of peak-season consumer goods into US East Coast ports, which are typically reached in September each year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Caribbean ports are also heavily exposed, with storms causing disruptions for supply chains more broadly, as seen with Hurricane Melissa in 2025, which heavily impacted Jamaica.

2026 storm season forecast 

The North Atlantic is expected to experience 13 named tropical storms in 2026, according to forecasts from the Colorado State University, including six hurricanes. That is slightly below the 14.4 storm average from 1991 to 2020 and well below the 20.4 average since 2020 but only in line with 2025’s 13 storms.

Near-term congestion outlook 

Congestion risks at secondary chokepoints will rise over the next two to three months, as tanker traffic linked to LNG and refined fuels competes for transit with container shipping during peak season.

Panama Canal as a binding constraint 

The Panama Canal is likely to remain a binding constraint, with limited spare capacity amplifying the impact of any weather-related disruptions later in the year.

Network congestion as the new norm 

Shipping delays are more likely to propagate through network congression rather than a single point of closure, extending disruption beyond the Middle East.

What is causing increased pressure on the Panama Canal?

According to the analysis, a sharp rise in traffic in March has pushed the canal to full capacity. This is driven by a shift in traffic composition, where increased demand for US LNG has led to tankers accounting for over one-third of transits, overtaking container ships.

How do weather events add to supply chain risk?

Weather introduces significant uncertainty. The analysis notes a high probability of El Niño conditions, which could reduce rainfall and constrain transit slots at the Panama Canal. Separately, the North Atlantic tropical storm season, which peaks in September, coincides with peak-season arrivals on the US East Coast and can cause major disruptions, as seen with past hurricanes.

Why is simple rerouting no longer an effective strategy?

As the article states, supply chain risk is becoming "geographically diffuse." With pressure building on secondary chokepoints like the Panama and Malacca Straits simultaneously, the problem is shifting from a single point of closure to widespread network congestion. This makes it difficult to find alternative routes that are not also experiencing delays or capacity constraints.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.