Listen: MediaTalk | Season 2 EP 14 - The Summer Box Office Begins

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news Team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, wherein the news and research staff explore issues in the evolving media landscape. Today, I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Senior Research Analyst Wade Holden, who specializes in the box office and the movie business, and Mac Mathews, who's an associate director of editorial design and publishing and a film aficionado. How are you doing Wade?

Wade Holden: I'm doing well, excited that the summer movie season is upon us.

Reynolds: Mac, what's going on your side?

Mac Mathews: I got my chin up and my popcorn buttered.

Reynolds: There you go. All right. Today, our Hollywood guys are going to provide a review of the spring season, which wasn't necessarily blooming at the box office. Let's get to it. In reading some of your analysis, it would seem like two thumbs down so far in 2024. Wade, the box office of the spring season was way down from last year?

Holden: Yeah, our spring season — it's the first 17 weeks of our box office calendar — was down 24.6% to $2.05 billion. A combination of the strikes mucking up the production pipeline and some film titles having to be pushed made things a little more spaced out. And also, there was not a big hit rolling over into the spring of 2024 like there was in 2023 with "Avatar: The Way of the Water" making $6 million of its total box office in the spring season of 2023.

Reynolds: Wow, Mac, but '24 is up a bit from 2022 levels?

Mathews: Yeah, and the difference comes down to a deeper pool of independent films in 2024 versus 2022, which was more during the pandemic and so there weren't as many things coming out. There were 241 independent films in release in 2024 that grossed $317.2 million compared to 96 films in 2022 that grossed $104.3 million.

Reynolds: All right. As we go to wider releases, Wade, the big films this spring were "Dune: Part Two," and "Kung Fu Panda 4." Your assessment of how these films did?

Holden: They're great. We did have some bona fide hits in the spring season despite lower totals. Dune 2 did $281.9 million domestically and $428.5 million internationally. And when you put that up against its $192 million budget, that's great returns for it. I think it was the same with Kung Fu Panda. It's grossed $534 million worldwide on a budget of $86.2 million.

Reynolds: That's a nice return there.

Holden: Yeah, it's really good. It seems people are thirsty for big franchise films.

Reynolds: Mac?

Mathews: "Dune: Part Two" and "Kung Fu Panda 4" were both released in March and are still playing around the corner at my local theater. And so they have really had time to find the audience that's out there for them, much like the smaller rom-com "Anyone But You" did. It was released in December 2023, didn't have a great start, but it found its audience. We're in an age now where the theatrical market isn't quite as crowded as it used to be with releases, so good movies are finding their markets. So when the movies play well on the big screen, they're still going to do pretty well with word of mouth.

Reynolds: All right. Let's move on to the summer season, guys. May's usually a time for superheroes. There's nothing for Marvel this year, which often starts the summer with an Iron Man or an Avengers entry. And Wade, is there anything on the horizon that can possibly approach "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer?"

Holden: We are missing the big Marvel bump that usually starts the summer because the first two weeks it's already down 33% compared to last year's summer season. It's like $219.3 million vs. $327.3 million last year, and the second week of summer 2023 is when Guardians of the Galaxy had its big opening weekend. Looking forward, at this point, I don't think there's anything on the calendar that looks like it'll be capable of capturing that cultural zeitgeist that "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" did.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Mac, anything out there that's caught your eye? Maybe not to that level, but something that you think is going to resonate.

Mathews: Yeah, in terms of cultural impact, "Despicable Me 4" has the Minions and then "Deadpool & Wolverine" has Deadpool. Those characters are all over the internet. They're all over Christmas trees in terms of ornaments and things like that. They have cultural saturation in a way that if those movies were playing or debuting on the same weekend, the internet would have a field day with that. That could be a zeitgeist type of thing, but they're separated on the calendar by a few weeks. And so I think they both will captivate audiences and do really well, but I don't know if it's going to pop off in the same way as "Barbie"/"Oppenheimer."

Reynolds: Those are tough acts to follow no matter what. Summer season started with "Fall Guy." It's an adaptation of a 1980s ABC series starring Lee Majors as a stuntman. The theatrical stars Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt. Wade, how has "The Fall Guy" fared?

Holden: Not that great, unfortunately. This isn't the first film to be inspired by a television series, and sometimes they're big hits like the 21 Jump Street pair of films; or you get a "CHIPS" that really doesn't quite tick the meter. Unfortunately, it looks like that the first major release of the summer is also going to be the first major flop of the summer.

Mathews: I saw "The Fall Guy" opening weekend and it had the audience in stitches. Very funny. I wasn't expecting as much of a rom-com as it was. It really put Ryan Gosling's charm on full display. But I think the connection to the old TV show and it's action-movie aesthetic may have made for a challenging marketing situation for a movie that they effectively wanted to market as, "You liked Barbie, and Ken was in Barbie. Here's more Ken." The movie itself is doing a lot of things at once. It's a romance and a tribute to stunt people, which isn't maybe the most intuitive combination. And it also contains a shaggy detective story. I don't know if they needed to do as much in terms of the action side of things that really brought the budget up on that one.

Reynolds: Okay. So the next summer film is the latest installment in Planet of the Apes. Wade, Mac — what do you guys think of that? How has it done? Have you guys seen it?

Mathews: It opened to over $130 million worldwide, which does make it feel like the summer season could have a pulse after all, after "The Fall Guy" opening. I saw "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" opening weekend, and it had some visuals that were really impressive, almost Avatar-like in their immersive quality, and this is a formidable franchise. I don't see this installment breaking out in a bigger way than prior installments. I felt the movie was a little slow and felt like it was doing a bit of setup work for movies to come.

Reynolds: Wade, what's your thoughts?

Holden: I haven't seen it, but it opened to $58.4 million, which, that's a really good number. And it's the second best of the four films when they rebooted it, going back to 2014. So it seems it's going to be on par with the previous installments of the last few years. It's just a kind of a solid performing franchise, another one that Walt Disney Co. gets to have with Marvel and Star Wars and other things.

Reynolds: Okay. "IF" — it's a kid's film starring Ryan Reynolds, among many others. Mac, how much can you imagine this film will resonate?

Mathews: We haven't had any big PG releases out in theaters since "Kung Fu Panda 4." So the family audience has been underserved. We have "Inside Out 2" and "Despicable Me 4" on the horizon. So are families so starved for content that they'll try out "IF" or are they going to hold on for a few more weeks until school is out across the country and go for something that they know already?

Holden: On a personal note, when we were in the theater last weekend re-watching "Phantom Menace" and the trailer for "IF" came up and my 17-year-old son looks over at me and says, "Can we go see that one?" So, I think it's got a very broad appeal. I think having Ryan Reynolds in there opens it up and I think attracts a wider audience to it.

Reynolds: All right, Mac, here's the most important question of the day. When it comes to the Ryans, who you got, Reynolds or Gosling?

Mathews: You ask me today, I'm saying Ryan Gosling. I just saw him in "The Fall Guy." He's been out doing the press for that movie. Incredibly charming guy, but he's still capable of solving the mystery and doing the action. Ask me again after Deadpool comes out, maybe I'll have a different answer because I'm also susceptible to the charms of Ryan Reynolds and his motor-mouth antihero.

Reynolds: I'm going Reynolds for a number of reasons. First, married to Blake Lively. Secondly, he owns the Wrexham soccer club. Thirdly, he's got the, is it the home field name advantage? Anyway, I'm going Reynolds.

Okay, Memorial Day. The big film is a Mad Max prequel, "Furiosa." Expectations, Wade?

Holden: Expectations from what I've seen are that it's gonna open around $40 to $50 million, which it's not bad, but it's got a pretty big price tag of around $170 million. It's going to have to do well, both domestically and internationally if it's going to turn a profit. But the good news is that the film was cleared to be released in China, which is one of the world's biggest box office markets. So that's really good news for it. "Mad Max: Fury Road" made $216.2 million worldwide and it did not play in China. So there's hope they'll have big international returns.

Reynolds: All right. Let's talk about Will Smith and Martin Lawrence together again.

Mathews: Yeah, and Bad Boys 3, or "Bad Boys for Life" did over $400 million, easily cleared $400 million on a modest budget for an action movie.

It had the highest gross of the franchise and came 17 years after "Bad Boys 2." This sequel only comes 4 years after the last one, and it's yet to be seen whether audiences went to the last one out of nostalgia, or if they are hungry for more from this franchise. It may be the latter as I found the 2020 film to be a delight. Martin Lawrence was very funny in it and I could see audiences wanting more.

Holden: There was a lot of positive word of mouth about the new Bad Boys film. It was really exciting. And the chemistry between Will Smith and Martin Lawrence was as spot on as ever. So yeah, I think people seem to be excited about it.

Reynolds: Alright, I'm gonna speak here of an even longer return. I'm not talking about Dorothy and her house floating to Oz, but the original "Twister" premiered in '96. Are you ready for another Twister, Wade?

Holden: Yeah, sure, it's quite a long gap. I remember when the original "Twister" came out, I was in college over the summer stacking produce at the grocery store. And now my son's about to go to college. But it looks fun to me. It looks like a classic special effects-laden film, perfect for summer. A great popcorn film.

Reynolds: All right, Mac, Pixar's "Inside Out 2" is coming along, and that film did really well before.

Mathews: Yeah, it's a title that has my kids very excited. They see the poster, they see the preview, and even when they see another preview, and I ask if they want to see it, they say, "But this doesn't mean we can't see 'Inside Out 2,' right?" So it has a great brand awareness and it's the first sequel, so it hasn't been played out. You hope that with some of these Pixar tentpoles that they don't just churn out the next one. They wait until they have a good story to tell.

Reynolds: We've alluded to "Deadpool & Wolverine" this summer. I think it's the one Marvel film that we're gonna get, but it's R-rated. There's everybody's favorite, at least mine, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman — double star power — but is the R-rating hurdle too high?

Holden: I don't think so. There's plenty of R-rated hits out there and the first two Deadpool films both made over $300 million domestically. I think there's an excitement to see Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds together in a movie and Hugh Jackman back as Wolverine. They have a great friendship apparently that plays out with trolling each other online. So I think audiences really connect with those two. While you guys previously picked your favorite Ryan, I pick Hugh Jackman.

Reynolds: Okay, good. Fair enough. What we've talked about so far, guys, are a lot of franchise plays. Wade, any new original film that's caught your eye?

Holden: There's quite a few that have caught my eye. I grew up on Westerns, so I'm very interested in the two-part saga coming out from Kevin Costner, "Horizon."

I've been watching trailers and looking forward to "The Bikeriders" that period drama with Austin Butler and Jodi Comer and Tom Hardy. That looks great. There's a new comedy called "Fly Me to the Moon" with Scarlett Johansson where she's hired by NASA to be their PR person and they want her to film a fake moon landing in case the real moon landing doesn't happen. And then there's an interesting one, coming out in August, called "Trap," starring Josh Hartnett, where he's a serial killer who takes his daughter to some pop star concert. And the police have somehow turned the arena into a trap to try to catch him. I don't know. It looked really interesting to me.

Reynolds: Mac, what do you think about that? Any originals that you think are going to work?

Mathews: There's still a story to be told right now about movies that are held back from theaters and put out on streaming. I don't have the full slate in front of me, but I know so far this year, there was a Jake Gyllenhaal-led remake of "Roadhouse" that went straight to Amazon.com Inc. Really fun movie, probably would have done well in theaters. Anne Hathaway was in a rom-com called "The Idea of You" that went straight to Amazon. Those were both out on Amazon Prime and yet Amazon took this other movie, "Challengers," about tennis and a love triangle and put that in theaters. So Amazon is choosing its battles. The tennis movie "Challengers" was directed by Luca Guadagnino, who did "Call Me By Your Name" and is maybe going for awards. But some of the right-down-the-middle movies, they're putting directly to their streaming services where they're seen widely, but there's probably room in the theatrical marketplace for more movies. You only usually have one wide release per weekend.

Reynolds: Last one for you, Wade. From a box office perspective, the summer 2024 is going to wind up being how big, Wade? What do you think?

Holden: I'm not optimistic it will break $4 billion like last year. I think it's certainly going to be over $3 billion. I think there's a lot to look forward to. There's some interesting titles still coming out in August, so I think there's good momentum all the way through August.

Reynolds: There you have it. This concludes this episode of MediaTalk. I just wanted to thank Wade and Mac for spending a lot of time sharing their views on theatrical performances thus far, and handicapping what Summer '24 may bring to all of us at the box office. Appreciate it, Wade.

Holden: It's always a pleasure.

Reynolds: Thanks for stepping into the virtual recording studio with us, Mac.

Mathews: Thanks for having me.

Reynolds: All right, guys. This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. Maybe we'll meet at the movies this summer, but we'll definitely catch up soon on the next edition of "MediaTalk."