India, China to drive global aluminum demand growth in 2026: Brazil's CBA

China and India are expected to lead the global aluminum demand growth in 2026, Brazilian integrated aluminum producer Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) said May 5. India's growth is seen as more pronounced, while China's growth should moderate, it said.

Global processed aluminum demand is set to rise 1.8% year over year in 2026 to 107.3 million metric tons, CBA said in a market report compiled from analyst market data and the company's research. Global miner Rio Tinto and Chinese state-owned aluminum producer Chinalco acquired control of CBA earlier this year.

Chinese demand will still account for the largest share of total growth, with consumption forecast to grow by 0.9%, according to the report. China's expected growth is set to be lower than in 2025due to growth in electrical and battery energy storage systems, high-value-added manufacturing and semi-manufactured exports, which are offsetting the current weakness in construction sector demand, the report added.

India's aluminum consumption is set to grow 0.6% this year, as it pushes to use more aluminum for infrastructure and electrification projects.

Global growth in aluminum demand this year is expected to be more balanced, upheld by packaging, energy, capital goods and stable demand from the transport sector, according to the report.

The only region expected to show a decrease in aluminum product usage in 2026 is the Middle East, with a 0.2% year-over-year decline expected in consumption amid the ongoing conflict, which has heightened market instability.

Aluminum product demand in Asia (excluding China and India) is expected to grow 0.2% this year, along with 0.2% growth anticipated in Europe and 0.1% in North America, the report stated.

CBA added that global aluminum supplies outweighed demand in the first quarter of 2026, with an overall market surplus broadening to 637,000 mt, substantially above the 365,000 mt surplus in the same period last year. In the second quarter of 2025, a market deficit of 552,000 mt was reported.

The surplus in Q1 stemmed from Chinese New Year holidays in February and a slowdown in China's renewable energies sector, according to the report.