2025 Outlooks
From artificial intelligence capabilities, global credit conditions and energy transition to corporate debt issuance, supply-demand dynamics, geopolitics and policy shifts, stay up to date on the latest 2025 outlooks from S&P Global.
Industry Outlook Reports
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Capital Markets
The 2025 Capital Markets Outlook
In 2024, corporate debt issuance surged due to increased investor demand, while equity issuance saw a slower recovery as high interest rates and the election supercycle delayed some offerings to the following year. Improved macro fundamentals and anticipated central bank rate cuts are expected to activate dormant IPO pipelines and enhance capital markets activity in 2025.
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Commercial Real Estate
The 2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook
The commercial real estate market's mettle will be tested as many borrowers seek to refinance loans maturing in the next year. Interest rates are unlikely to fall enough to reach the same levels as when the loans were originated, resulting in a higher debt service for borrowers, if credit is available at all. Concerns about the office real estate sector remain high, particularly for older buildings where few employees have returned to work in person.
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Energy Transition
The 2025 Energy Transition Outlook
The growing demand for artificial intelligence in the US highlights the urgent need for enhanced infrastructure, including new datacenters and substantial power resources, which may conflict with decarbonization efforts. The aging transmission system hampers renewable energy integration, prompting Big Tech to explore nuclear energy options, while datacenter deployment remains optimistic, with a focus on green energy and critical minerals gaining investor attention as lawmakers prepare to address these challenges in 2025.
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Generative AI
The 2025 Generative AI Outlook
Can Generative AI (GenAI) bridge the gap between cost and value? GenAI foundation model startups have achieved revenue milestones at record speeds, but generating commercial value for most others remains an elusive task. Many can cite nominal lifts in overall business, particularly those offering AI-enabling technologies, however net new streams of revenue have been harder to come by.
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M&A
The 2025 M&A Outlook
M&A has shown signs of perking up, and the drivers are in place to help further accelerate activity. Potential pace setters include private equity firms, along with oil and gas and technology companies. The oil and gas sector has already contributed to the nascent M&A recovery. Blockbuster deals announced in late 2023 preceded a global rise in $10 billion-plus deals in 2024. Tech companies have more capacity to pursue M&A due to improving valuations and revenue outlooks.
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Private Markets
The 2025 Private Markets Outlook
Public US credit markets had a banner year in 2024 with record new issuance readily absorbed. While solid economic growth and the likelihood of a soft landing are certainly factors, the staggering growth of the $1.5 trillion private credit market offers another option to tap into funding. The two sides of the credit market are likely to become more enmeshed, and that is raising new concerns about the relative opaqueness of private credit.
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Supply Chains
The 2025 Supply Chain Outlook
In 2025, policy implementation will take precedence following the 2024 elections. Protectionism remains a key focus in the US and EU, while China expands its carbon emissions compliance markets. Companies can mitigate geographic risks from policy and climate changes through long-term diversification, mid-term technological investments, and short-term multi-sourcing, although investments in automation and logistics may face scrutiny.
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Sustainability
The 2025 Sustainability Outlook
Insured losses from natural catastrophes globally have topped $100 billion in each of the past three years and, thanks to hurricanes Helene and Milton that hit Florida, look set to do so again in 2024. As the insurance industry undergoes a period of heightened claims, these evolving physical risks are forcing insurers to reevaluate their relationships with each other and the world at large.
Regional Credit Conditions
Economic Outlook
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Global
Global Economic Outlook Q1 2025: Buckle Up
The global macroeconomic outlook is hostage to the policy implementation of the new U.S. administration. The recent macro pattern featuring an outperforming U.S. economy continues. But potentially large changes in fiscal, trade, and immigration policy from the U.S. are significant unknowns at this juncture. Specifically, it is unclear to what extent campaign promises will translate into policy, and when.
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U.S.
Economic Outlook U.S. Q1 2025: Steady Growth, Significant Policy Uncertainty
Heading into 2025, the U.S. economy is expanding at a solid pace. While President-elect Donald Trump outlined numerous policy proposals during his campaign, S&P Global Ratings' economic outlook for 2025 hasn't changed appreciably. This is partly because we have taken a probabilistic approach and are assuming partial implementation of campaign promises.
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Eurozone
Economic Outlook Eurozone Q1 2025: Next Year Will Be A Game Changer
S&P Global Ratings expects eurozone GDP growth will reach 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. S&P Global Ratings' base-case scenario has changed little—and mainly due to revisions to past GDP data—since the previous publication as there are only a few indicators to draw on. S&P Global Ratings expects Germany's GDP growth will fall short of eurozone peers' next year, while Spain will continue to outperform. Inflation will be slightly lower in 2024 than expected (2.4% versus 2.5% previously) because of a more pronounced decline in energy prices. Yet the underlying price trend remains intact, with prices potentially stabilizing over the near term.
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Asia-Pacific
Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q1 2025: U.S. Trade Shift Blurs The Horizon
The impending change in the U.S. administration will be challenging for China and the rest of Asia-Pacific. U.S. tariff increases have become more likely, especially on China, and possible changes in the U.S. macro picture are leading to different interest rate expectations. While much of the region should be able to continue to grow solidly, central banks will probably remain cautious by not reducing their policy rates too fast. And risks have gone up.
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U.K.
U.K. Economic Outlook 2025: Monetary Policy And Trade To Offset Fiscal Impetus
After a slower second half this year, the U.K. economy looks set to gather steam on looser fiscal policy, with GDP rising by 1.5% in 2025 versus our September forecast of 1.2%, and maintaining a similar pace through 2027.
But S&P Global Ratings now expects the Bank of England (BOE) to cut its rate only four times over the next quarters to 3.75% by the end of 2025, as a result of stronger jobs growth and inflation stemming from higher government spending.
These factors will likely dilute the economic impulse of the policy stimulus at a time when geopolitical risks and the potential for trade frictions have increased following the U.S. elections, though the impact on the U.K. is minimal at this stage.
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Emerging Markets
Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q1 2025: Trade Uncertainty Threatens Growth
A likely increase in trade protectionist policies among major economies will hurt GDP growth in most emerging markets (EMs) in the next couple of years, but the magnitude of the impact will depend on those policies' details, which will become clearer in the coming months.
For now, we assume only a modest increase in tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China in 2025 and no new tariffs for the rest of the world, which would produce a relatively modest net impact on GDP in most major EMs outside of China.
However, downside risks to our forecast are high, and potential tightening in financial conditions because of trade-related uncertainty adds another hazard.
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Canada
Economic Outlook Canada Q1 2025: Immigration Policies Hamper Growth Expectations
S&P Global Ratings expects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024 (unchanged from previous forecast) before accelerating to 1.7% in 2025 (was 2.0%).
A substantial deceleration in population growth next year as new immigration curbs take effect will counter any boost to the economy from lower borrowing costs. Stalling population growth will simultaneously reduce aggregate demand and the labor supply. S&P Global Ratings anticipates the Bank of Canada will remain on course to steadily cut rates until it reaches 2.25% by the middle of next year.
The key risk for Canada's economy from the U.S. presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, leaving Canada subject to any U.S. import tariffs.
