Daily Update June 12, 2023

Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy.

Wildfires Were Predicted, More Are Coming

On the morning of June 7, New Yorkers could maintain the pretense that everything was normal. But as the afternoon progressed, the skies over Manhattan turned a sickly orange, and the sky faded to an artificial twilight. Outside, the air smelled of ash, and face masks reappeared on the streets for the first time since pandemic restrictions eased. Massive forest fires, hundreds of miles away in Canada, shrouded the city in smoke.

In January 2020, Richard Mattison, now vice chairman of S&P Global Sustainable1, addressed a packed room at the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings in Davos, Switzerland. Mattison’s topic that day was the physical asset risks associated with climate change. The presentation began with footage of the wildfires that ravaged Australia starting June 2019. Mattison shared slide after slide showing global assets threatened by drought, flooding, heat waves and, of course, wildfires.

“While the extent and effectiveness of the global response to climate change remain uncertain, one thing is very clear,” Mattison said. “Companies and investors must prepare for a range of possible outcomes with diverging transition and physical risks.”

According to the World Meteorological Organization, climate-related disasters, including intense hurricanes, heat waves and droughts, are nearly five times more frequent now compared with the historical baseline. If this trend continues, there would be 560 climate-related disasters in 2030, a 40% increase from 2015. Climate change is fueling harsher, longer and more frequent droughts. While wildfires are a natural part of the ecological cycle for many forests, this increase in frequency and intensity takes a toll on the economy.

This year, a particularly dry spring across Canada unleashed wildfires of unprecedented severity and extent. So far, 3.3 million hectares have burned across the country, and more than 100,000 people have been forced to relocate under evacuation orders, according to the Canadian government. Canadian officials have warned that the risk of wildfires will remain elevated throughout 2023, with the country undergoing a waning La Nina climate pattern and a developing El Nino pattern, leading to dryness and a higher risk of fire.

While the smoke was inconvenient for New Yorkers, the wildfires have been severe for many Canadian industries. Mining companies have suspended or reduced operations in Quebec, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Mining company exploration crews have been particularly hard hit, forced to evacuate as fires have spread. In Western Canada, natural gas and oil production have stalled. Many provincial governments have issued dry weather and heat warnings, restricting allowable activities to avoid starting new fires. Persistent hot and dry conditions pose an ongoing danger to firefighters who are confronting the worst wildfire season in history.

Today is Monday, June 12, 2023, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

Written by Nathan Hunt.

Economy

Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of June 12, 2023

Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong SAR will be the highlights next week as we hear central bankers' views on recent economic trends. Further insights into economic conditions will nevertheless be drawn from various data releases including US CPI, as well as retail sales and industrial production figures from both the US and mainland China. The UK will also publish official labor market and growth figures while the eurozone issues revised inflation numbers.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Capital Markets

Turkish, Swiss Banks Among Least Cost-Efficient In Europe In Q1

Turkey's largest lender by assets has ranked as the least cost-efficient among major European banks in the first quarter, S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows. State-owned Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Ziraat Bankasi AS registered a cost-to-income ratio of 126.16% at March-end. The ratio gauges efficiency by measuring operating expenses as a proportion of operating income. First-quarter operating expenses at the bank jumped 586% to 35.41 billion Turkish lira from a year earlier, including 20 billion lira in nonrecurring cost.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Global Trade

Asia-Pacific Supramax, Panamax Rates Plunge On Poor Commodities Demand, Weak China Recovery

Asia-Pacific Supramax and Panamax time-charter equivalent rates in the second quarter of 2023 have so far more than halved from Q2 2022 because of weak Chinese commodities demand and fewer congestions at ports, dry bulk market participants said June 9. The Platts APSI 5 Index, a ton-mile weighted average index of five Supramax routes within the Asia-Pacific, plunged to $10,230/d over April 1-June 8, from an average of $25,814/d for the whole of Q2 2022, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Sustainability

Net-Zero Alliances Jittery As GOP Attorneys General Play Antitrust Card

More than a dozen insurance companies have left a UN-led climate alliance in the three weeks since a group of Republican attorneys general warned that their participation appeared to violate US antitrust laws. The Biden administration's federal antitrust enforcers have not weighed in on whether net-zero alliances raise anti-competitive concerns, but experts say the potential legal jeopardy around any industry collaboration on climate initiatives should not be taken lightly.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Energy & Commodities

Fuel-Switching In Europe Continues As Natural Gas Prices Step Down

Fuel-switching by European power generators has continued in recent weeks with lower natural gas prices, although the potential for a further decline in coal-fired generation is now very limited, analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed June 9. Despite some recent gains on the key European trading hubs, overall natural gas prices have seen ample losses in recent weeks, with S&P Global assessing the TTF July contract at Eur27.2/MWh June 8. This was above the recent multi-year low for any front-month of Eur23.25/MWh registered June 1, yet 27% below levels seen in early May.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Technology & Media

Listen: Next In Tech | Episode 119: Defeating Digital Deficiencies

Next in Tech kicks off Pride Month with a look at the technology challenges faced by many marginalized communities and effective ways to build capabilities to overcome them. Cybersecurity analyst Abby Simmons and returning guest Emily Jasper, president of S&P Global’s Pride Resource Group, join host Eric Hanselman to talk about efforts to bridge the technology gap, transfer skills and overcome barriers to success. Actions for allies like smartphone repair and working for Right to Repair are just the beginning.

—Listen and subscribe to Next in Tech, a podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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