Watch: COP28: The Challenge

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As nations around the world prepare to gather in Dubai at the end of November to discuss global climate goals, the pressure is on to make meaningful change and to resolve outstanding issues from last year’s Conference of Parties.

COP28 has been presented as an inclusive and solutions-driven summit. Statements from the COP28 presidency highlight "keeping the 1.5 degree Celsius goal alive" as the key priority, while maintaining an action-oriented vision.

But current policy implementation and emissions reduction targets are not yet at the scale and pace needed. In fact, current targets under the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) put the 1.5-degree Paris Agreement goal largely out of reach. In S&P Global’s base case scenario, the world is on track for a 2.4-degree increase in global temperature by 2100. Even the most optimistic scenario, in which the world accelerates green policies, still results in a 1.7-degree increase.

COP28 will mark the end of the first Global Stocktake. This is a two-year process established under the Paris Agreement that aims to track total progress and map out actions to more aggressively combat climate change. It will be a "moment of truth," designed to catalyze more political commitment to fill current gaps and deliver the changes needed to get global emissions trajectories on track.

For more on COP28 and the energy transition, visit spglobal.com/commodityinsights