Mystery of hijacked ship off Somalia adds to Red Sea security unease

The hijacking of a Bulgarian-owned merchant ship 700-miles off Somalia remains shrouded in mystery six days on, fueling uncertainty in a region reeling from Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels and concerns that Somali pirates have re-emerged after a four-year hiatus.

While some have seen the seizure of the Maltese-flagged Ruen as evidence of the latter, maritime intelligence sources remain skeptical about the capacity of Somali pirates – generally ragtag gangs with small arms on skiffs – to plan and carry out such an attack.

"This is so far a one-off incident," said Corey Ranslem, chief executive of maritime risk advisory and security company Dryad Global. "At this point there is no indication of a return to the piracy off Somalia to the level that it was before and don't know at this point if this is a piracy related event."

Ranslem added that Iran could just as easily be behind the seemingly "targeted" Ruen attack.

Tehran's proxy, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, has been targeting Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea – which hosts a large chunk of global commodities trade – since the Israel-Hamas war began in October.

The 41,600 dwt Ruen was boarded in open sea some 400 miles east of Yemen's Socotra island and 700 miles east of Somalia on Dec. 14. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, it was carrying 40,775 mt of steel from South Korea to Turkey. After drifting, the ship routed towards Somalia.

As of Dec. 20, the Ruen was just off semi-autonomous Puntland state, previously a hub for Somali piracy. A Spanish navy vessel was following the Ruen from a safe distance.

Recent lawlessness

Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov was quick to label the incident "a case of piracy" adding that "negotiations for ransom are expected", according to the Bulgarian News Agency.

It comes a few weeks after an Iranian fishing vessel, Almeraj 1, was commandeered by Somali pirates, who demanded a $400,000 ransom. In late-November, another unknown group attempted to hijack the Central Park chemical tanker in the Red Sea but were caught by a nearby American warship. The US military said the assailants were not Yemeni, but details remain scarce.

The Houthis, who have fought an eight-year civil war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed government, have not commented on the Ruen incident, despite claiming responsibility for recent Red Sea attacks on Israeli-linked ships.

Their onslaught led Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, to pause transits through the Red Sea, followed by oil majors BP and Equinor. Without access to the Suez Canal, ships must instead pass the Cape of Good Hope.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Arabian Gulf to UK Suez Canal clean tanker shipping route for a 65,000-mt cargo at $62.31/mt on Dec. 20, up from $41.54/mt on Nov. 29.

There is also no indication thus far of any link between the Ruen and Israel, either from an ownership or activity standpoint, Ranslem said.

That, and the routing of the vessel towards Somalia, has prompted suggestions that recent lawlessness in the Red Sea could have led Somali pirates to take advantage, according to security experts.

"The Ruen hijacking was likely carried out by Somalia-based pirates," said Simon Rynn, senior research fellow for African Security at the Royal United Services Institute. "The resurgence coincides with the Houthi campaign against Israeli-linked shipping but if there is a connection it would at most be due to counter-piracy actors being distracted."

"EUNAVFOR Operation ATALANTA has always stressed that although piracy was suppressed, it was not eradicated and if the opportunity was given to criminal networks based in these regions, they have the means and the intention to act," the EU Naval force in the region told S&P Global in a statement. "The unstable situation in the area, due to multiple factors, including the conflicts in Gaza and Yemen, are facilitating the re-emergence of this threat."

Others have even wondered if Somali pirates could be acting in solidarity with Gaza amid Israel's weekslong bombing campaign.

Resources

However, Ranslem said the hijacking, at 700 miles off Somalia, did not match the traditional methods of Somali pirates, who are financially, not politically, motivated.

"When you see a situation like this take place so far off the coast, there have to be other resources than just Somali pirates in a skiff going out for targets of opportunity like we've seen in the past," Ranslem said. "This was something that we believe was targeted. And we believe the Iranians were most likely behind it."

Michael Howlett, director of the International Maritime Bureau, an arm of the International Chamber of Commerce, said his organization was "very concerned about the latest incident".

"We are monitoring the situation and the area in general with regards to reported Somali piracy," Howlett added. "It is however over ten years since a vessel larger or of a similar size to the Ruen was successfully hijacked in the Indian Ocean."

At their height in 2011, Somali pirates carried out 212 attacks, costing the global economy $18 billion, according to the World Bank. The issue was ultimately solved by increased naval patrols, armed guards on ships, pirate prosecutions and capacity-building in Somalia. As a result, there have been no major attacks since 2020.

In January, the shipping industry stopped designating the Indian Ocean as a high risk area.

"They were using motherships before and operating further offshore," said Ranslem. "But a lot of that infrastructure is just not there because it has been dismantled."