COP28: Leaders agree to transition away from fossil fuels in final text

World leaders agreed a final text of the global stocktake at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference on Dec. 13, which included "transitioning away" from fossil fuels and working "toward the phasedown" of unabated coal.

Many considered that a step in the right direction, with a clear signal to urgently reduce fossil fuel use though some view it as a compromise, as the document did not include the word phaseout.

Countries agreed to contribute to "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science," according to the final global stocktake draft text.

That came after climate talks ran to the eleventh hour due to a row over the inclusion of a fossil fuel phaseout, which was omitted from the eventual deal.

"We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever," COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber said after the deal was agreed by all signatories of the Paris Agreement.

"We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science. It is a balanced plan that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation."

Peaking emissions

Leaders also agreed to triple global renewable generation capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, to fast-track the energy transition.

The text also said global greenhouse gas emissions were likely to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025, while acknowledging time frames will be different for many countries.

Under S&P Global Commodity Insights' Inflections base case, global emissions from energy peak at 51.46 Gt CO2e in 2024, declining gently to 49.86 Gt CO2e in 2030 and 47.28 Gt CO2e in 2035. (See chart)

An acceleration of zero- and low-emission technologies was also called for, including renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production.

The draft followed an all-night meeting of negotiators after the previous text was criticized for not including a phaseout or phasedown of fossil fuels.

It also called for accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon dioxide emissions globally, led by methane emissions by 2030, and accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero- and low-emission vehicles.

A phaseout of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies was also urged "as soon as possible".

Beginning of the end

Reaction to the deal was mostly positive, with parties like the EU agreeing to the text despite no mention of a fossil fuel phaseout.

EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said it was an "historic decision" because it set in motion an "irreversible, accelerated transition away" from fossil fuels.

"We have achieved what we set out to do: keep 1.5 C within reach and mark the beginning of the end of fossil fuels," Hoekstra said in a statement.

However, many small island nations, whose very existence is being threatened by climate change, were not pleased by the deal.

"It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us. This is not an approach that we should be asked to defend. The exclusive focus on energy systems is disappointing," a representative of the Alliance of Small Islands States currently chaired by Samoa said.

"There are loopholes," former UNFCCC political strategist Tom Rivett-Carnac said in a BBC radio interview. "Transitioning away from fossil fuels 'in energy systems' is an interesting phrase. Not much oil is used in producing electricity, and some people will certainly interpret this as only to do with electricity generation, leaving open a big loophole for use of oil in transportation."

Middle ground

Crude oil producers including Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia objected to language focusing on a phaseout or phasedown of fossil fuels, but "transitioning away" was considered acceptable as it broadened responsibility to all society, not just producers.

A source close to the Saudi COP28 delegation COP28 said the kingdom was happy with the final decision and was actively involved in drafting paragraphs 27 and 28 in the final text.

The laundry list is now suitable for everybody with the emphasis on transitioning energy systems, the source said, adding that Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman played a major role sitting in the final discussions.

One key difference between the previous text and the current one is it gives countries the room to set their own transition pathways "in a nationally determined manner".

It also removed the commitment to limit permitting new coal-fired power capacities and removes a call to reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels, using instead "transitioning away" from fossil fuels in energy systems.

Global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall 43% by 2030 to limit global heating to 1.5 C, but current commitments in national climate plans would increase emissions by 9% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels, the UN said Dec. 10.

Energy markets in focus at COP28

Source: COP28 Presidency, S&P Global Commodity Insights, UNFCCC