Mexico to present long-term Pemex plan as government readies bylaw changes

Mexico's new government is expected Nov. 13 to present its long-term plan for Pemex as it prepares to modify the state oil and gas company's bylaws to streamline its operations.

Pemex management has given some hints at what is to be announced, but experts worry it might not be enough to turn the company around.

President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, Energy Secretary María Elena Gonzalez and Pemex CEO Victor Rodríguez Padilla are expected to present the plan for Pemex during Sheinbaum's daily press conference Nov. 13.

Mexico will welcome private investment in exploration and production of heavy crude, natural gas, deepwater crude and marginal oil and outline "clear rules" for this cooperation in the coming weeks, Rodríguez Padilla said during the company's third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 29. Rodríguez said the country's crude output target for the coming years remained unchanged at 1.8 million b/d, which is enough to meet domestic refining demand.

The plan will come as the government readies a set of constitutional reforms that include the elimination of independent regulators. A draft shared with local media contained changes to company operations and elimination of some subsidies, but the details have not been confirmed.

Lack of long-term planning

Observers, experts and market participants say Pemex is facing "very complex" problems and needs decisive actions to solve them. This means, in particular, forming joint ventures with private firms that have the technical expertise and most importantly the financial resources Pemex lacks. Only going for service contracts to operate oil and gas fields will not be enough going forward, the experts said.

"The situation of the company is complex, and completely operational; fields are at an advanced stage of decline and the only way for the company to recover its cash generation capabilities is to venture into fields where it does not have the technology nor the money to do it alone," independent consultant Rosanety Barrios Beltrán told S&P Global Commodity Insights. Barrios Beltrán was a senior energy official who oversaw the implementation of the energy sector liberalization of 2013. Most recently, Barrios served as top energy adviser to presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, who lost to Sheinbaum in the June 1 election.

Pemex should use "farm-outs" to maximize the value of its portfolio, or at least "farm-ins," Barrios Beltrán said, noting that recovery factors in the country are around 30% so the country must be open.

Pemex currently has only one farm-out, Trion, with Woodside Energy of Australia, where Woodside is the operator. Trion, located in the Gulf of Mexico, close to the marine US border, was discovered by Pemex in 2012. When fully developed, Trion could contribute with roughly 110,000 b/d of crude and 100 MMcf/d of gas to the national output, which will make it one of the largest in the country.

"We are already going late! The work to attract investment for the upstream should have started 10 years ago," said Gonzalo Monroy, CEO of consultancy GMEC in Mexico City. "However, there has not been the appropriate long-term planning in the country."

Pemex needs to bring in private companies to help it with the vast number of fields it operates where its production does not even cover the costs, Monroy said.

According to the country's upstream regulator, the National Hydrocarbons Commission, Pemex operates roughly 250 fields of which 180 produce 1,000 b/d or less. Its main production comes from seven main fields, which are also expected to decline soon.

"Without the help of private capital, Pemex will likely continue to lose money and its output will continue to decline," Monroy said.

Pemex crude output in September was 1.45 million b/d, the lowest since the late 1970s, when the company discovered its largest field Cantarell. Only in the Q3, the company lost over $8 billion.

'Service contracts not the answer'

Pemex needs private industry to keep production stable. But observers worry Pemex will only allow private companies to participate through service contracts, a scheme it has been using since the 1980s. Observers complain the model is obsolete, does not generate incentives for higher output, and will increase losses.

"I am concerned that when Pemex speaks of more private investments it does not mean more competition, just more deals for the companies close to the government," said Miriam Grunstein, a non-resident scholar at the US Mexico Center of the James Baker Institute at Rice University. Grunstein was speaking at a panel about the Mexico reforms organized by the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute.

"Service contracts are not the answer," Grunstein said.

All sources consulted for this story, including top level officials of oil and gas companies operating in the country and former Pemex executives, agreed with this statement.

Pemex did not respond to requests for comment.

"Beyond whether or not service contracts work for Mexico now, signing more of them seems like a losing business when your debt with suppliers is already high," Barrios Beltrán told Commodity Insights.

At the end of Q3, Pemex owed over $20 billion to its contractors, according to its financial statements.