INTERVIEW: Israel-Hamas war fueling security, safety concerns over fossil fuels: IEA's Birol

Rising geopolitical threats to global oil and natural gas supplies -- in addition to concern over human-caused climate change -- are increasingly hurting the appeal of fossil fuels as reliable, safe energy sources, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said Nov. 7.

Global oil markets are currently focused on the fallout from the Israeli ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza amid concerns it could trigger wider regional conflict, hitting oil exports given an aggressive response from Iranian-backed Hezbollah and from Iran itself.

"Oil markets are on edge," Birol said in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The issue is if one or more than one producing country is directly involved in the crisis or not. If that's the case, we may well see that the markets could be negatively affected ... in terms of supply disruptions and high oil prices."

Fear of the conflict spreading wider in the Middle East has added to the bullish mood in oil markets, fueled by a mixture of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts and heightened geopolitical risks from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. The West's sanctions on Russian oil exports have reshaped crude and diesel flows to Europe since Moscow invaded Ukraine last year while Yemen has also emerged as a potential flash point for global oil markets if peace talks with Iranian-backed Houthi militants collapse due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalating across the Middle East, analysts have warned.

Platts last assessed Dated Brent Nov. 6 at $88.095/b, down from a peak of $95/b in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel, but up by around $13/b since the beginning of 2023. Platts is a part of S&P Global.

"I think if I was not an energy person but a man on the street, I would think that the claims that oil and gas are safe and secure choices for energy are getting weaker and weaker," Birol said "This is something that the oil and gas industry needs to think about. They are losing a lot from the [narrative] that they are a reliable, secure, and safe energy choice."

"When I look at the natural gas markets, what happened two years ago, with the Russia-Ukraine situation and gas prices suddenly increased substantially, they became volatile and the availability of gas became a key question," he said. "Many Europeans thought 'Are we going to freeze or not here?' Coming back to oil, people are on edge [asking]: 'Are we going to see oil prices skyrocketing? What will be the price of diesel here if there's a supply disruption? Are we going to see that the Hormuz Strait is going to be closed, if it is closed, who is going to supply the oil?'"

People are also linking extreme weather events with the use of fossil fuels, in addition to being responsible for the deepening climate crisis, Birol said.

Russian warning

In its latest monthly oil market report, on Oct 12, the IEA said it was "ready to act" with a coordinated release of strategic stocks if an escalation of the conflict in Israel were to impact oil supplies from the Middle East. Noting there has so far been no direct impact on physical oil supplies from the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the IEA said it expects the international community to "remain laser-focused" on risks to the region's oil flows if there are any signs that it could spill over politically to the wider Middle East.

Looking ahead, Birol warned that the West's pivot away from Russian oil and gas will likely have longer-term consequences for the demand and supply outlook of its key oil and gas exports.

"In terms of gas, it is extremely difficult, especially the fact that we are going to see around 2025, a big major new wave of LNG coming to markets," he said. "In terms of oil, Russia is trying to replace Europe with India and China, but at lower prices and I think that demand will not be infinite. Another challenge for Russia in my view is that Russian fields are mature fields and they need a lot of good, technological care with sophisticated technologies by international companies. Having a lack of those companies due to the sanctions may be also important for the future production prospects of Russia, both for oil and gas."

In its IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023, published in October, the IEA said that -- under its central scenario -- global demand for coal, oil and natural gas will likely peak before the end of the decade, due mostly to rapid progress on solar power and electric vehicles as part of an "unstoppable" shift to clean energy,

"Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them," Birol said in the outlook. "There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone."