US ELECTIONS: Texas oil and gas stalwart keeps Senate seat, NC governor to push for emissions cuts

In the US elections on Nov. 5, Republican Senator Ted Cruz fought off his Democratic challenger in Texas, while the North Carolina and New Hampshire governors are projected to hand off their offices to their respective parties, according to preliminary results in three key down-ballot races for energy policy.

As of 1 am ET (6 am GMT) on Nov. 6, Republicans were expected to regain control of the US Senate while the race for the White House had yet to be called.

But in the races for the US Senate seat in Texas and the governor's offices in New Hampshire and North Carolina — three races that could have material implications for the energy industry — voters chose to uphold the status quo.

New Hampshire governor

Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte will likely be the next governor of New Hampshire after winning a tightly contested race against Democrat Joyce Craig, according to preliminary election results.

Ayotte led Craig by 7.5 percentage points with 62% of votes counted when the Associated Press called the race at around 10:35 pm ET on Nov. 5.

Ayotte, a former New Hampshire attorney general and US senator, is expected to continue the "all of the above" energy policy embraced by her predecessor, outgoing Republican Governor Chris Sununu, with the aim of tackling soaring prices.

New Hampshire power rates climbed 51.3% between 2018 and 2023, the second-highest rate increase in the nation in that period, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Under Sununu's leadership, the state pursued a policy that he characterizes as more market-driven and technology-neutral than the renewable energy mandates and emissions reduction goals adopted by some neighboring New England states.

During her campaign, Ayotte advocated for bringing small modular nuclear reactors to the state. New Hampshire is already home to NextEra Energy Inc.'s 1,251-MW Seabrook nuclear plant.

On the issue of net metering, Ayotte could potentially differentiate herself from Sununu by increasing the maximum capacity for eligible customer-owned renewable generation. Sununu repeatedly vetoed bipartisan legislation that would have increased the cap to 5 MW from the current 1 MW.

In August, the New Hampshire Bulletin reported that Ayotte would be "open to looking at" net metering expansion but wants to "make sure that we don't pass additional costs on to ratepayers."

Additionally, Ayotte has said she will fight against federal offshore wind projects off the state's coastline, reversing the course set by her predecessor who described himself a "champion of offshore wind."

In the US Senate, where she served from 2011 to 2017, Ayotte helped organize a GOP working group to promote a party agenda dealing with climate change, breaking with many fellow Republicans.

North Carolina governor

Democrat North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein will likely become the state's next governor, according to preliminary election results.

Stein led Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson by about 15 percentage points with 55.2% of the votes in as of 11:32 pm ET on Nov. 5, according to the Associated Press, which has called the race.

The race was set to determine the future of energy policy in the state, with critical regulatory appointments and a new focus on grid resiliency following a devastating hurricane hanging in the balance.

Stein's victory means the Democrat will have the opportunity to replace or reappoint two commissioners appointed by outgoing Democrat Governor Roy Cooper, one in 2025 and one in 2027.

But should Republicans maintain majority control of the North Carolina General Assembly, and the current veto-proof supermajority, Stein's ambitions as governor could effectively be limited.

Stein said he plans to pursue policies to dramatically reduce emissions by 2030 and reach net zero in the next 30 years, as well as shore up the grid against climate disasters in a state recently devastated by Hurricane Helene.

Environmental and clean energy advocates said Stein has a track record of supporting clean energy in North Carolina, opposing efforts to weaken existing emissions standards, and urging state regulators to build an energy portfolio requiring quicker coal plant retirements.

Stein said he plans to push utilities to diversify energy portfolios, advocating an "alternative approach that creates more solar and wind energy."

The next governor is most likely to impact Duke Energy Corp. and other utilities through North Carolina Utilities Commission nominations and statewide economic development policies to balance the energy transition with reliability and cost.

While clean energy and environmental advocates hailed Stein as a "climate champion," his opponent, Robinson, promoted fossil fuel use, increased domestic drilling, and referred to climate change as "junk science" and "pseudoscience."

Texas Senate

US Senator Ted Cruz, Republican-Texas, is projected to win his reelection bid, helping Republicans take back control of the Senate.

Cruz, a strong supporter of US oil and gas production, was leading Representative Colin Allred, Democrat-Texas, by about 10 percentage points with 84% of votes counted shortly after the Associated Press called the race at 11:39 pm ET on Nov. 5.

Cruz was elected to the US Senate in 2012 and reelected in 2018.

During a debate in October, Cruz weathered attacks from Allred for flying from Houston to Cancún, Mexico, amid a February 2021 winter storm that left millions of Texans without power.

As a senator, Cruz has sponsored a range of legislations to strengthen Texas' position as the top energy-producing state in the nation.

Texas pumped 5.82 million b/d of crude oil in August, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data, outpacing OPEC heavyweight Iraq, which produced 4.2 million b/d in September, according to the latest Platts OPEC survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights.