Russia not considering early lifting of gasoline export ban: sources

Russia is not planning to lift its gasoline export ban early due to ongoing refinery turnarounds and high retail prices, according to local media and market sources.

The energy ministry had previously been considering easing the ban starting in November once the market was well supplied, Kommersant daily reported, adding that those plans had now been shelved.

In late September officials indicated that the ban could be lifted earlier than expected if a gasoline surplus emerged, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported. However, supply is still seen as not fully sufficient to cover demand amid ongoing refinery turnarounds.

Russian refineries are gradually coming out of their refinery turnarounds, with some, like Angarsk, having already restarted. Most works are winding down by the end of October but some are due to continue into the first half of November, including at Norsi, Volgograd, Ukhta, Novokuybishev and Ryazan, market sources said previously.

The ban is due to remain in force until the end of the year, but prices could rise if it is lifted early, the report said.

While gasoline spot prices on the St. Petersburg exchange have been steadily falling over the last month, retail prices, which so far have lagged behind spot prices, are climbing and could rise above the level of inflation, according to market sources.

Russia's statistical arm Rosstat reported an 0.18% increase in gasoline retail prices over the past week, bringing the annual rise to 7.23%, a tad below the 7.42% inflation figure. Russian authorities closely monitor retail prices, which are expected to remain within the annual inflation rate.

As a result, lifting the ban in December also becomes increasingly unlikely, with some in the market also suggesting it could be extended into early 2025.

Export flows

Some exports of Russian gasoline continue as product heading to nearby countries under intergovernmental agreements has been exempt from the ban, according to the document published by the government in late February when the ban was enforced.

There also have been reports by shipping sources of Russian gasoline exports by sea, primarily heading to the Mediterranean and North Africa.

"In the Med, we've seen some Russian resupply easing the tightness," a gasoline trader said.

Sources said this is most likely gasoline that does not meet the Euro 5 specifications, as the ban only affects Euro 5 gasoline, and the volumes had been significantly lower than exports prior to the ban.