Iraq, Libya declines lead 500,000 b/d drop in OPEC+ Sept output: Platts survey

OPEC+ crude oil production fell 500,000 b/d month-on-month to 40.23 million b/d in September, largely due to a major shutdown in Libya and cuts to Iraqi exports, refinery runs and direct burn, the Platts OPEC+ survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed Oct. 10.

The output cut will ease pressure on overproducers who have faced growing calls to comply with their quotas in 2024, as the group aims to shore up prices in the face of demand uncertainty and booming non-OPEC+ output.

The survey showed that OPEC+ members with quotas pumped 232,000 b/d above their collective target in September, down almost 100,000 b/d from overproduction of 327,000 b/d in August.

Crude oil production from OPEC’s 13 members fell 520,000 b/d to 26.25 million b/d, while output by its 10 OPEC+ allies led by Russia rose by 20,000 b/d to 13.98 million b/d.

Libya contributed the biggest cut, with production falling by 410,000 b/d month-on-month as a result of field and port shutdowns amid a dispute over leadership of the country’s central bank. The crisis, which reduced Libyan output to just 580,000 b/d, lasted from Aug. 26 to the appointment of new bank governor Naji Essa on Oct. 3.

Iraq, the group’s biggest overproducer in 2024, reduced output by 130,000 b/d to 4.2 million b/d. That number includes volumes from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, over which Baghdad has little control.

Among the non-OPEC countries in the alliance, Kazakhstan increased output by 70,000 b/d to 1.52 million b/d, after its major Tengiz field returned from maintenance in early September. This was largely balanced by Russia cutting production by 50,000 b/d to 9.0 million b/d.

Russian output is now on par with Saudi Arabia. Russia had been producing above Saudi Arabia since July 2023. The two countries both have a quota of 8.98 million b/d.

Other countries that have overproduced in 2024 include the UAE, Kuwait and Gabon, but only Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have submitted “compensation plans” to make up for surplus volumes.

Price impact

OPEC+ overproduction contributed to a steady decline in oil prices in mid-2024, with Platts-assessed Dated Brent almost dipping below $70/b in early September, leading OPEC+ to delay plans to start gradually rolling back 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts by two months to December.

The group had planned to slowly ease voluntary production cuts by eight members -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, Oman, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Russia and the UAE -- depending on market conditions and starting with 190,000 b/d in October.

Weak demand in China -- the world’s largest crude importer -- as well as high oil production in non-OPEC+ producers, particularly in the Americas, and stubbornly high interest rates around the world also contributed to price weakness.

Slumping oil prices piled pressure on laggards such as Iraq and Kazakhstan to comply with their production targets, with OPEC+ sources telling Commodity Insights that global oil inventories would be lower and the market tighter had they done so.

In recent weeks supply security concerns have boosted prices, however, as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt oil production and exports. Platts last assessed Dated Brent at $77.665/b on Oct. 9.

S&P Global Commodity Insights expects prices to stay close to this level, forecasting Dated Brent to average $76/b in the fourth quarter of 2024, and $75/b in 2025.

The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee which oversees the agreement, as well as a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting, is scheduled for Dec. 1 in Vienna. The group can call extraordinary meetings if it considers market conditions require discussion of policy changes.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.

OPEC+ crude production (million b/d)
OPEC-9	Sep-24	Change	Aug-24	Quota	Over/under
Algeria	0.91	0.00	0.91	0.908	0.002
Congo-Brazzaville	0.26	-0.01	0.27	0.277	-0.017
Equatorial Guinea	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.070	-0.010
Gabon	0.21	-0.01	0.22	0.169	0.041
Iraq*†	4.20	-0.13	4.33	3.905	0.295
Kuwait	2.43	0.02	2.41	2.413	0.017
Nigeria	1.46	-0.04	1.50	1.500	-0.040
Saudi Arabia	9.00	0.01	8.99	8.978	0.022
UAE	2.99	0.00	2.99	2.912	0.078
TOTAL OPEC-9	21.52	-0.16	21.68	21.132	0.388
OPEC EXEMPT	Change	Quota	Over/under
Iran	3.23	0.05	3.18	N/A	N/A
Libya	0.58	-0.41	0.99	N/A	N/A
Venezuela	0.92	0.00	0.92	N/A	N/A
TOTAL OPEC-12	26.25	-0.52	26.77	N/A	N/A
NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS	Change	Quota	Over/under
Azerbaijan	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.551	-0.061
Bahrain	0.16	-0.02	0.18	0.196	-0.036
Brunei	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.083	0.007
Kazakhstan†	1.52	0.07	1.45	1.440	0.080
Malaysia	0.34	-0.01	0.35	0.401	-0.061
Oman	0.77	0.01	0.76	0.759	0.011
Russia	9.00	-0.05	9.05	8.978	0.022
Sudan	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.064	-0.034
South Sudan	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.124	-0.074
TOTAL NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS	12.45	0.04	12.41	12.596	-0.146
NON-OPEC EXEMPT	Change	Quota	Over/under
Mexico	1.53	-0.02	1.55	N/A	N/A
TOTAL NON-OPEC	13.98	0.02	13.96	N/A	N/A
OPEC+ MEMBERS WITH QUOTAS	Change	Quota	Over/under
TOTAL	33.97	-0.12	34.09	33.73	0.242
OPEC+	Change	Quota	Over/under
TOTAL	40.23	-0.50	40.73	N/A	N/A
* Includes estimated 250,000 b/d production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq
† Iraq and Kazakhstan quotas reduced in line with compensation plans
Source: Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights