Saudi Arabia could achieve net-zero before 2060: energy minister

Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Oct. 9 that the world's largest exporter could achieve net-zero emissions before its current deadline of 2060.

"My personal preference is if we could do it by 2040 or 2045 [but] we don't want to make a commitment that we cannot deliver," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the audience at MENA Climate Week in Riyadh.

"We believe we can achieve it by 2060 or earlier and that's why in the Paris Agreement we were clear with everybody that we have a baseline and that baseline will determine how we can progress with our economic diversity," he added.

While Riyadh is currently targets a 2060 deadline for net-zero emissions, state oil company Saudi Aramco is in line with most global ambitions and intends to reach its goal by 2050.

Neighboring UAE, which was the first to declare a net-zero target among Middle East OPEC producers plans to reach that goal by 2050. Its state oil company ADNOC recently revised the target to 2045 as it plans to accelerate its climate goals ahead of the UAE's hosting of COP28 in November.

Bullish oil outlook

Prince Abdulaziz's comments follow a bullish outlook for oil by OPEC, which released its much-watched World Oil Outlook in Riyadh on Oct. 9.

The exporters' group pushed back its estimate of peak demand to at least 2045 and rejecting the notion that the transition to renewable energies would pose any near-term threat to its existence.

Global oil demand will expand annually by about 3 million b/d of oil equivalent until it reaches 116 million b/d by 2045, driven by population growth, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, according to OPEC.

That is a 6 million b/d upward adjustment from the 2022 version of its report, which expected oil demand to plateau by 2040.

A case for hydrocarbons

The Saudi energy minister's comments also follow his earlier remarks on Oct. 8 where he made the case for oil and gas at the opening of the UNFCC climate week.

"There is a case for us to continue to be in oil and continue to be in gas," he said.

"Although the share of oil and gas will diminish, but out of what -- out of a bigger energy system," he added.

The UAE, an OPEC producer and ally of Saudi Arabia, backed Riyadh's message of continued fossil fuel investment.

"As major hydrocarbon producers, we have also a responsibility, our role is to provide your transition enough amount of resources, hydrocarbon resources to ensure that we are transitioning at a reasonable price," the UAE's energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told the audience. "And that is something that we are keeping in mind. That's why the United Arab Emirates have decided when to expedite its target of 5 million b/d capacity."

Both oil exporters have come under increasing scrutiny over ambitious plans to host climate talks while steadily increasing fossil fuel investments through upstream capacity increments in their domestic concessions.