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About Commodity Insights
Crude Oil
September 12, 2024
By Kate Winston and Mery Mogollon
HIGHLIGHTS
Targets high court, electoral council members
No short-term oil sector impact expected: experts
The US Treasury Department is sanctioning 16 officials aligned with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, including members of the National Electoral Council and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, who have helped Maduro stay in power in the wake of the country’s disputed July election.
The sanctions include the judge and the prosecutor who authorized the arrest warrant for the opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, who has since fled Venezuela and sought protection in Spain. In addition to Treasury’s sanctions, the State Department is also imposing new visa restrictions on Maduro-aligned officials.
The new sanctions “should prompt deeper reflection of officials aligned with Maduro about how far they want to go down this path of facilitating a blatant effort to cling to power by Maduro,” a senior State Department official said in a Sept. 12 press briefing.
When asked whether the US is considering adding restrictions to existing oil-sector licenses, a senior Biden administration official said the US is still evaluating how best to calibrate its sanctions.
“We are constantly monitoring very closely the political and economic developments in Venezuela and are committed to calibrating our sanctions policy appropriately in response both to events on the ground, as well as broader U.S. national interests,” the administration official said.
The US temporarily eased oil sector sanctions in October and reimposed them in April amid concerns about the election, but it has continued to allow company-specific licenses. Venezuela’s crude production was 914,000 b/d in August, up from 770,000 b/d in September 2023.
The sanctions are not expected to have an impact on the energy sector in the short term, but they confirm complications for the longer term, said Rachel Ziemba, a senior advisor at Horizon Engage. The newly sanctioned individuals are not linked to the energy sector, and there is no signal that the US plans to change the company-specific licenses that were issued in recent months, she said.
“Overall, I think developments impact more the medium-term outlook, making it even less likely that Venezuela production picks up rapidly or that major new investment takes place, but I think broader global supply demand fundamentals are much more important for the global oil markets,” Ziemba said.
But other developments could have an impact on the oil sector, said Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group.
For instance, Jorge Rodríguez, president of the Venezuelan Parliament and an ally of Maduro, has demanded to break diplomatic and commercial relations with Spain after the Spanish Congress approved a proposal to recognize González as president-elect.
“We expect this is mostly bluster, but if they were to move ahead, Caracas would be scoring an own goal by damaging confidence among key investors who are working to ramp up production in Venezuela,” Ferreira said.
Some lawmakers are also working on legislation regarding Venezuela. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, Democrat-Illinois, introduced a bill Sept. 9 that would end all US petroleum cooperation and petroleum-related trade with Venezuela until the legitimate results of the election are respected, according to a statement from Durbin.
“The Maduro regime clings to power using oil revenues dependent on US involvement,” Durbin said in the statement. “Under this bill, that will end, and so will Maduro’s financial strength.”
Treasury sanctioned several members of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, including Inocencio Antonio Figueroa Arizaleta, Malaquias Gil Rodríguez, Juan Carlos Hidalgo Pandares and Fanny Beatriz Marquez Cordero, according to a Treasury statement. The Supreme Tribunal of Justice certified the National Electoral Council’s claim that Maduro won the election.
Treasury also sanctioned Edward Miguel Briceño Cisneros, the judge who issued the arrest warrant for González, and Luis Ernesto Dueñez Reyes, a prosecutor that requested the arrest warrant. National Electoral Council members Rosalba Gil Pacheco and Antonio José Meneses Rodríguez were also sanctioned.
Treasury sanctioned Pedro José Infante Aparicio, the first vice president of the Maduro-aligned National Assembly. Many of the remaining sanctioned individuals have military and intelligence roles in the Venezuelan government.
Maduro’s government rejected the new US sanctions as illegitimate. “Venezuela rejects, in the strongest terms, the new crime of aggression committed by the government of the United States of America against Venezuela by imposing unilateral, illegitimate and illegal coercive measures on a group of state officials,” Venezuela’s Chancellor of the Republic Yván Gil said in a Sept. 12 statement.