Russia, UK play down fears over Russian Antarctic oil and gas research

Russian state research company Rosgeologiya and the UK foreign ministry separately played down suspicions over Russian oil and gas-related research in Antarctica, with the Russian side asserting the scientific character of voyages by a US-sanctioned research vessel.

Statements in recent weeks from the UK and Russia follow an examination by a UK parliamentary committee into whether Russia might be violating a ban on mining in Antarctica, enshrined in a 1959 Antarctic Treaty on the governance of the region, and a 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection.

Suspicions over Russia's intentions have been fueled by the sanctioning by the US in February 2024 of Russia's flagship polar research vessel, the Akademik Alexander Karpinskiy.

UK media have focused on a February 2020 statement from Rosgeologiya outlining seismic and other survey work it had carried out -- mainly in an area adjoining the Indian Ocean -- that included an assertion that "potential hydrocarbon resources in the identified sedimentary basins are estimated at approximately 70 billion mt," or 511 billion barrels.

Among those who provided evidence to the UK parliament's environmental audit subcommittee on polar research in early-May was Professor Klaus Dodds of London's Royal Holloway university, who warned of the risk of "strategic competition" in Antarctica and said: "there is a worry that Russia is collecting seismic data that could be construed to be prospecting rather than scientific research."

A spokesperson for the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office alluded to Russia's status as an original signatory to the Antarctic Treaty and said: "last year, all parties to the Antarctic Treaty reaffirmed their ongoing commitment to work together under the agreed framework, which reserves Antarctica for scientific use only."

The FCDO added that "while Antarctica contains a wealth of mineral resources, there is no current evidence of a breach of the Protocol. Russia has a long-standing program of surveying and mapping the geology of Antarctica... Russia has repeatedly assured the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting that these activities are for scientific purposes."

Following Russia's annual "Polar Explorers Day" on May 21, Rosgeologiya issued a statement underlining its commitment to purely scientific research in Antarctica. It addded the Akademik Alexander Karpinskiy had in 2023-24 conducted "geophysical research" in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, while a separate geophysical team had conducted aerial surveys in eastern Antarctica and geological work in an area known as the Bunger Oasis.

Rosgeologiya "conducts scientific research activity in Antarctica in strict accordance with the provisions of the Protocol on Environmental Protection... including article 7," which stipulates that "any activity relating to mineral resources, other than scientific research, shall be prohibited," it said, going on to underline a corresponding provision in a Russian strategy document of August 2020.

All Antarctic activity by Rosgeologiya, "including the use of the scientific research vessel Akademik Alexander Karpinskiy, has an exclusively scientific character. The scientific research tasks are geological and geophysical study of the origin and geological structure of Antarctica, the structures and dynamics of sedimentary settlement, the determination of natural foundations and the reconstruction of the stages of formation of the Earth's crust in the Antarctic seas," it said.

Antarctic tensions

The UK parliamentary sub-committee heard evidence on the decreasing extent of sea ice around Antarctica to a record low in July 2023, as well as concerns over micro-plastic pollution.

A 1992 study by US Geological Survey expert John Kingston concluded that the Antarctic's total recoverable petroleum resources could be around 19 billion barrels of oil and 106 Tcf of gas based on "normal recovery" conditions. However, given the difficulties of Antarctic operations it estimated that commercial-scale fields of at least 500 million barrels would likely total only 6 billion barrels and 32 Tcf.

The continent has seven historical claimants -- Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the UK -- while the US and Russia reserve the right to make claims, and there is one unclaimed sector.

The US State Department's sanctions administration body, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, was contacted for comment and had yet to respond.