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About Commodity Insights
14 May 2024 | 10:29 UTC
Highlights
2024, 2025 global demand growth forecasts unchanged
Call on OPEC+ crude 43.2 mil b/d in 2024
Demand growth to outpace non-OPEC+ supply rise
OPEC retained its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, despite facing significant uncertainty around geopolitical developments and economic projections, it said May 14, in its closely watched monthly oil market report.
OPEC sees global oil demand growth at 2.2 million b/d in 2024, and 1.8 million b/d in 2025, unchanged from estimates included in its previous report.
The estimates in the report will be the most recent available to OPEC+ ministers when they meet June 1 to discuss market conditions, production levels and baselines. Analysts with S&P Global Commodity Insights expect the group will extend current quotas and voluntary cuts at the meeting.
In early 2024, the group benefitted from price gains, partially due to its aggressive cuts. This impact has faded in recent weeks, however, with weak economic data and growing non-OPEC+ supply weighing on the market. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $82.115/b on May 13, down from more than $93/b in early April.
OPEC forecasts that demand for OPEC+ crude will grow 900,000 b/d year on year in 2024 to 43.2 million b/d.
OPEC has changed the way that it reports forecasts, shifting from demand for its own crude, to demand for crude produced by countries that have signed up to the OPEC + Declaration of Cooperation.
The demand forecast is significantly above current output. OPEC+ crude oil production in April decreased by 246,000 b/d month on month to an average of 41.02 million b/d, according to secondary sources, including Commodity Insights analysts.
OPEC said that its own crude output was down 48,000 b/d month on month in April to 26.58 million b/d, according to the secondary sources.
It expects non-OPEC+ supply growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2024, and 1.1 million b/d in 2025 -- well below the pace of its forecast for global demand growth, providing a bullish case for the alliance as it prepares to meet. It sees the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway as the main growth drivers.
OPEC estimated OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.793 billion barrels as of March, up 20.2 million barrels month on month. This is 121 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average.
That included an increase in crude stocks of 6.8 million barrels, and a rise of 13.5 million barrels in products stocks.