Tinubu wins Nigerian election on platform of energy reform, stemming oil theft

Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress emerged the winner of Nigeria's presidential election, the nation's electoral body announced March 1, with analysts expecting his rule to lead to an improvement in the management of the country's oil-dominated economy.

Tinubu has promised to implement key reforms in the energy sector, ensure collaboration between security agencies and oil industry operators to stem oil theft and also abolish fuel subsidies.

But the victory by Tinubu, who secured 8.7 million votes of the total 24 million votes cast, could also lead to renewed violence in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, where one of his closest challengers, Peter Obi of the Labor Party, won all his votes.

Tinubu, 70, who was governor of Nigeria's economic and commercial capital Lagos between 1999 and 2003, took 25% of the votes in 26 states and the federal capital Abuja, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission Mahmood Yakubu announced on state television.

Under Nigeria's electoral law, the winner of a presidential election must take a simple majority as well as 25% of the vote in two thirds of the country's 36 states.

Tinubu claimed the majority of the votes largely from the North and the Southwest.

His other closest rivals Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, who hails from the Southeastern region, and Obi, from the Southeastern region, secured 6.9 million and 6.1 million votes, respectively, in the hotly disputed polls.

On Feb. 27 the Labour Party and the Peoples Democratic Party demanded the electoral commission halt the vote counting, cancel the election and order a fresh election, alleging widespread irregularities.

Oil challenges

Tinubu will take over from President Muhammadu Buhari on May 29, 2023, and will inherit the many challenges bedeviling the country's oil industry, including oil theft and ageing infrastructure. These have negatively impacted Nigeria's oil production and exports, and add to lingering gasoline shortages and a rising costly subsidy on imported fuel.

President Buhari promised to tackle the problem when first elected in 2015, but the situation worsened in his two terms.

Nigeria lost around 500,000 b/d of production to theft in 2022, according to government estimates. However, the hiring of former Niger Delta militant leader Tompolo in mid-2022 to protect pipelines to some extent helped contain theft, lifting output by 300,000 b/d from September to end-2022, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.