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About Commodity Insights
10 Jan 2024 | 16:51 UTC
By Nick Coleman and Elza Turner
Highlights
Crude exports rise in all directions, offsetting Druzhba collapse
European diesel supplies rerouted via ports and to Central Asia
Storm-prone Novorossiisk suffers 110 down days
Russian crude loadings at the Far Eastern port of Kozmino rose 9.4% to 42.8 million mt in 2023 -- around 860,000 b/d -- pipeline operator Transneft said Jan. 10, quoted by Tass news agency.
Of the four major terminals for Russian seaborne exports, Kozmino came just behind first-placed Primorsk, in the Gulf of Finland, which loaded 44.4 million mt, up 6.5% on the year.
Crude loadings from Ust-Luga, also on the Gulf of Finland, rose 9% to 34 million mt, while Transneft loadings from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk rose 3.1% to 30 million mt, according to the report.
Transneft CEO Nikolai Tokaryev added he expected Kozmino loadings to reach 46 million mt in 2024 compared with a capacity of 50 million mt.
A 7.2% rise in seaborne crude exports in 2023 reflects the collapse of loadings via the Druzhba crude pipeline to central and eastern Europe following EU curbs on Russian oil imports; Druzhba exports dropped by some 60% year-on-year, Transneft said. The only crude delivered west of Belarus through the northern branch of the system derived from Kazakhstan, which has an agreement to supply Germany from its own fields, Transneft said.
Overall exports of Russian crude oil dropped 6.5% on the year due mainly to increased supplies to Russian domestic refineries, a separate report from Interfax said. Direct pipeline exports of crude to China remained stable at 40 million mt.
Russian oil product exports rose 12.5%, with a 21% increase in product exports from Primorsk and a 5.8% increase via Novorossiisk, but much of the increase was to landlocked Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the south, Interfax reported. Diesel accounts for the vast majority of Russian oil product exports.
Transneft added Novorossiisk was proving far more prone to disruption from storm conditions than the other outlets, being closed for 110 24-hour periods in 2023, compared with 32 down days at Kozmino and just 4.3 and 3.5 days at Ust-Luga and Primorsk, respectively.
Russian crude exports have been subject to a variety of restrictions by G7 nations and their partners, including a ban on shipments to most of the EU, and a price cap preventing provision of shipping and related services for sales above $60/b for crude.
While the price cap rules are not universally applied, and Russia has developed a sizeable "shadow fleet," media reports suggest such measures are restricting supplies even to countries that have expressed readiness to receive Russian crude such as India.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Urals shipped from Primorsk at $60.87/b on Jan. 9, up $2.58/b on the day.