Commodities 2022: Most new US generating capacity will be solar, followed by wind

US grid operators are expected to add more solar capacity in 2022 than other generation sources as states and utilities take it upon themselves to drive the clean energy transition.

New capacity from wind, solar and batteries is expected to surpass 30 GW in 2022, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics' North American Electricity Short Term Forecast. Across the US, there is expected to be 15.5 GW of new solar, 11 GW of new wind and 4.2 GW of batteries added in 2022.

Clean energy targets set by states and individual companies are driving the energy transition due to lack of a federal regulation. Only 11 US states have no clean energy goals on the books, while nearly half the states have aggressive goals of 100% clean energy.

The US Energy Information Administration projects renewables' share of US electricity generation mix to double by 2050 to account for 42% of the market share, according to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2021.

"The renewable share is projected to increase as nuclear and coal-fired generation decrease and the natural gas-fired generation share remains relatively constant," the EIA said in a February statement. "By 2030, renewables will collectively surpass natural gas to be the predominant source of generation in the United States."

The three regions adding the most renewables are the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the California Independent System Operator and the Southwest Power Pool.

ERCOT

ERCOT is expected to add 15.4 GW renewables in 2022, according to Platts Analytics.

Texas already leads the US in total renewable capacity, including solar, wind and battery storage, at 42.7 GW, according to the American Clean Power Association's quarterly report for Q3 2021. ERCOT represents about 90% of the state's electric load.

Renewables have accounted for 28.6% of the grid operator's market share this year, according to ERCOT data through November. The renewables market share increased 3.3 percentage points from 2020, the largest year-on-year jump across the US. The majority comes from wind at 24.5% of the total fuel mix.

Texas leads the US in installed wind capacity at 34.842 GW, according to ACP's third-quarter report. ERCOT is expected to add more than 2 GW of battery storage in 2022, along with nearly 3.68 GW wind and almost 8 GW solar, according to Platts Analytics.

Western region

Across the Western Interconnection, 9.1 GW of clean energy is expected to come online in 2022, according to Platts Analytics. The West also expects to see 4.3 GW of battery, solar and wind capacity added in 2023.

CAISO had 2.1 GW of energy storage on the grid by early-December with plans to add 2 GW before next summer, CAISO President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said. In addition to energy storage, the grid operator expects to add 2.2 GW of solar and 200 MW of wind by June 1, 2022.

Renewables have made up 35.5% of the grid operator's market share so far this year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year on year, according to CAISO data through Dec. 20. Most of that comes from solar, which accounted for 15.8% of the total fuel mix.

California leads the US in installed solar capacity at 13.9 GW, as well as storage at 1.8 GW, according to ACP's Q3 2021 report. CAISO manages the flow of electricity for about 80% of California and a small part of Nevada.

California has a goal of 100% carbon-free power by 2045.

SPP

Renewables have made up 39% of the market share in the SPP footprint so far this year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from 2020, according to SPP data. Wind accounted for 35.3% of the total fuel mix so far in 2021.

SPP is expected to add 5.7 GW in 2022, 5.26 GW in wind and 450 MW in solar, according to Plats Analytics. Coal is expected to narrowly beat out wind for the top fuel source after wind took the top spot in 2020.

Half of the states in SPP's footprint ranked in the top 10 for US wind capacity, according to the ACP report.

Other regions

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator is expected to add 540 MW of solar and 527 MW of wind in 2022, according to Platts Analytics. The New York ISO is slated to add 40.5 MW solar and 112 MW wind.

Meanwhile, other regions are adding capacity from other fuel sources.

The PJM Interconnection is slated to add nearly 5 GW, mostly from 4.4 GW in natural gas. followed by 281 MW solar and 221 MW wind, according to Platts Analytics.

Across the Southeast, 2.6 GW of new capacity is expected in 2022, including 1.16 GW natural gas and 1.1 GW nuclear, followed by nearly 300 MW solar.

In the ISO New England footprint, 880 MW could come online in 2022, mostly from about 650 MW of natural gas.