Norwegian piped gas exports to NW Europe edge up in November

Norway's pipeline gas exports to landed markets in Northwest Europe edged up in November compared with October, but were slightly down year on year, an analysis of S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed Dec. 4.

Deliveries amounted to 9.8 Bcm in November, up 2% from 9.56 Bcm in October but down 1% on the year, the data showed.

Year-to-date exports remain strong, however, with pipeline deliveries up 9% year on year to 103 Bcm in the January-November period.

This is now on a par with deliveries in the first 11 months of 2022. According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, 2022 is currently seen as the peak year for gas output in Norway.

Germany remains the biggest landing point for Norwegian gas, with supplies totaling 3.7 Bcm in November followed by the UK (2.8 Bcm), Belgium (1.3 Bcm), France (0.8 Bcm), Denmark (0.8 Bcm), and the Netherlands (0.4 Bcm).

Norway is now the single biggest supply source of gas to the European market after Russian deliveries were sharply curtailed through 2022.

Norwegian operators maximized production and European exports to help offset lost Russian volumes and to make the most of high prices, which hit record highs in summer 2022.

Producers continue to look to ensure high output levels given ongoing strength in European gas prices. Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed the TTF month-ahead price on Dec. 3 at Eur48.49/MWh.

'Vulnerable' market

Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan said in October that gas prices reflected the fact that markets remain in a "vulnerable" state.

Speaking to analysts following the release of the Norwegian producer's Q3 results, Reitan said Asian LNG demand and the expiry of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal at the end of this year were key "moving parts" to watch.

The weather is also set to be a critical factor this winter following a mild 2023/24 season, Reitan said.

"A normal winter would leave the gas storages around 40% full in April compared to 60% this year," he said. "So that will have an impact on prices during the winter."

EU gas storage sites are currently filled to 84.7% of capacity, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

The European Commission last month raised an interim EU-wide gas storage filling target for Feb. 1 next year to 50% from 45% this year given concerns over Russian supplies via Ukraine.

The higher target was part of interim goals set by the EC Nov. 29 for EU countries to meet in 2025 to ensure gas storage facilities are filled to at least 90% of capacity by Nov. 1 next year.