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About Commodity Insights
14 Oct 2021 | 17:04 UTC
By Kelsey Hallahan and Emmanuel Corral
Highlights
Appalachia, Haynesville emerge as major basins for certified gas
Midstream participation could lead to physical trades, tracked molecules
Several recent announcements by midstream natural gas operators could lead to the ability to move natural gas certified for environmental friendliness directly from producers to end-users.
With natural gas drawing increasing scrutiny for its emissions footprint, the industry has responded with a cleaned-up version of its traditional product: certified gas. While a universally accepted definition has yet to emerge, broadly this means gas that has been verified by an independent third party to have been produced in a manner consistent with certain environmental, social and governance standards.
Methane emissions have emerged as a key performance metric for certified gas, with an emphasis on monitoring and measurement.
Producers, such as Southwestern Energy and EQT in Appalachia, were among the first to embrace the concept during the first half of 2021. Since then, interest in certified gas among producers has expanded to the Haynesville Shale with Chesapeake Energy and its pending acquisition of Vine Energy, and most recently, to the Permian Basin where ExxonMobil intends to certify a facility in New Mexico.
Although a handful of utilities have signed deals to purchase certified gas, the demand side of the market has generally been enthusiastic but skeptical. Some end-users have told Platts they prefer physical molecules as opposed to offsets. But without dedicated pipeline capacity to carry certified gas, there was no way to ensure they were getting the cleaner molecules.
That barrier might be about to fall, with midstream operators announcing intentions to dedicate capacity to transport certified molecules to end-users:
In addition to formal proposals, representatives from other major midstream operators, such as Williams – owner and operator of Transco Pipeline and Northwest Pipeline – and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners – owner and operator of Texas Gas Transmission and Gulf South Pipeline – mentioned interest in certified gas at the Oct. 12 LDC Gulf Coast Forum.
There have been two distinct certification waves: in 2018-19 and 2021. One of the earliest certified gas transactions took place in 2018 between Southwestern Energy and utility New Jersey Resources, with IES – now part of Project Canary – certifying to its TrustWell standard.
Currently, there are three major standards:
Certification first took off in Appalachia in 2021. Environmental Protection Agency data shows that Appalachia has the lowest natural methane intensity of all production regions in the contiguous United States. Starting with a lower methane intensity lowers the bar for the production to meet certification standards.
With its proximity to US LNG export facilities and the basin's naturally low emissions intensity, the Haynesville Shale in northern Louisiana and East Texas has emerged as a second major basin for certified gas.
In addition to Appalachia and the Haynesville, the Permian, Denver-Julesburg and Green River basins have each also had at least one producer seek certification so far this year. Outside of the US, Canada has also seen several certified gas deals, supported by Quebec gas distributor Energir's Initiative for Responsible Procurement of Natural Gas.
As of Oct. 14, companies had committed to certifying nearly 7 Bcf/d of production by the end of the year, according to a Platts survey of certifiers. An additional 5.3 Bcf/d is anticipated to come online in 2022, bringing the total to 12.3 Bcf/d, or around 14% of US gas production. The full amount of certified gas coming online is likely slightly higher, as a number of pilot projects have not disclosed their expected volumes.
Beyond physical transactions, certificates for environmental attributes – similar to Renewable Energy Certificates, or RECs, in electricity markets – are another possible route for certified gas market development. Platts launched Methane Performance Certificates Oct. 4, with Xpansiv hosting the registry. The Platts MPC methodology provides a framework and path forward for producers whose certified gas meets certain parameters to mint certificates through Xpansiv. These certificates can then be traded on the exchange and monetized. MiQ also has plans to issue certificates in a registry.
The strength of end-user demand for certified gas – either physical molecules or certificates – will determine whether this nascent market takes off or fizzles. Regulated utilities are scrutinized by state commissions on how much they pay for gas and pass through to ratepayers. This suggests LNG exporters are to be the real first-movers in certified gas as they seek to satisfy the environmental demands of offtakers in Europe and Asia.
Already, LNG export developer NextDecade signed a deal with Project Canary in April to certify its proposed 27 million mt/yr Port of Brownsville facility, Rio Grande LNG. The agreement could help the project secure sufficient offtake agreements for NextDecade to take FID.
Steep competition for LNG cargoes ahead of an undersupplied winter market might delay LNG sourced from certified gas in the near term, but the momentum of energy transition and increasing availability of both certified gas and dedicated pipelines to transport it means that it may only be a matter of time.