24 May 2022 | 16:01 UTC
US NOAA sees above-average Atlantic hurricane season with up to six major hurricanes
Highlights
Risks to production, refining, exports, ports
NOAA predicts up to 21 named storms
2021 season was third-most active
US energy and commodity markets are set for another busy Atlantic hurricane season that poses risks to the Gulf Coast refining hub, offshore Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production, US electricity demand and fuel supplies.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 65% probability of an above-normal season, with:
- 14-21 named storms;
- six-10 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and
- three-six major hurricanes with winds 111 mph or higher
Strong US oil and gas exports and the largest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve pose new risks for energy flows this hurricane season, on top of the usual risks to electricity demand and domestic fuel supplies.
NOAA attributed the expected increased activity to the ongoing La Nina system, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and a more intense West African monsoon.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third-most active for named storms, causing $78.5 billion in US damages, NOAA said.
Hurricane Ida in August 2021 shut 75% of Louisiana's refining capacity and nearly 95% of offshore Gulf of Mexico oil and gas output.
Click to see the full-size infographic.
