Global gas consumption in 2023 set to increase by 1% on year: GECF

Global gas consumption in 2023 is forecast to rise by around 1% year on year, with growth being driven by the US, China and some emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said April 5.

In its 2023 annual report, the GECF -- whose members include gas heavyweights Russia, Qatar and Iran -- said this year would mark a return to demand growth after consumption in 2022 dropped by 0.4% year on year to 4.03 Tcm.

"Mild winter weather in Q1 and Q4 2022 in the Northern Hemisphere resulted in lower gas consumption in the residential sector, while high gas prices affected gas consumption in the industrial sector, which led to demand decline in various countries of Asia Pacific and Europe," it said.

The forum said global gas consumption in the industrial sector in 2022 was estimated to have declined by 4% year on year to 740 Bcm due to high gas prices, which caused a fall in production or partial shutdown in some heavy industries such as the cement, fertilizer and steel sectors.

However, the GECF said that with the expected lower gas prices, gas consumption in the industrial sector was likely to rise in 2023.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the European benchmark TTF month-ahead price at an all-time high of Eur319.98/MWh on Aug. 26.

Prices have weakened since on the back of healthy storage levels throughout most of Europe and demand curtailments but remain historically high, with Platts assessing the TTF month-ahead price on April 4 at Eur45.58/MWh.

'Fundamental transformations'

GECF secretary general Mohamed Hamel said in the report that gas markets were undergoing "fundamental transformations" in terms of physical flows, investment, trade and market functioning.

Hamel added that energy security had gone to "the top of policymakers' priorities list" last year.

"Uncertainties have never been higher, and the energy trilemma has never been more evident and complicated at the same time: How to ensure secure, affordable and sustainable energy systems?" Hamel said.

Hamel also said long-term gas contracts had regained prominence on the back of the supply security advantages that they provide.

LNG trade also continues to expand, he said, rising by 6% in 2022 and making gas markets "more global and interconnected."

The GECF said Europe had displaced Asia Pacific to become the premium market for LNG last year.

In 2023, global LNG imports are forecast to increase by 4%-4.5% (16 million-18 million mt) year on year to 416 million mt.

"China and countries in the Indian sub-continent and Southeast Asia are forecast to account for the bulk of incremental increase in LNG imports with an additional 13-15 million mt of LNG imports," the GECF said.

Although oil and gas investment last year increased by 7% year on year to $718 billion and is expected to rise further in 2023, the GECF said that "looming uncertainties may deter investment."

As of March, the GECF comprises 12 members and seven observer members.

The member countries are Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela.

Angola, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Malaysia, Mozambique, Norway and Peru are observer members.