Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe drop to new low in January

Russian gas flows to Europe fell to a new low in January of just 1.52 Bcm as deliveries via both TurkStream and Ukraine dropped, an analysis of data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed Feb. 2.

Total Russian pipeline exports to Europe in January via the two remaining major supply routes were 36% down on deliveries in December and 79% lower year on year.

Russian contract prices became less competitive versus European hub prices in January as spot prices plunged, leading to a likely buyer-led reduction in imports.

The benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price averaged Eur62.88/MWh ($69.18/MWh) in January, according to assessments by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, compared with an average of Eur117.79/MWh in December.

Russia gradually choked gas supply to Europe through 2022, ending deliveries via the Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream pipelines, and sharply cutting exports via Ukraine.

The two-string Nord Stream pipeline was subsequently hit by a suspected sabotage attack in late September, rendering the system unusable.

Of the remaining supply routes, deliveries via Ukraine to non-CIS countries totaled 0.76 Bcm in January as supplies into Europe at the Velke Kapusany interconnection point gradually fell throughout the month.

Deliveries via Velke Kapusany dropped to just 18 million cu m/d toward the end of January.

Russian gas deliveries via TurkStream into Southeast Europe fell back below 1 Bcm to just 0.76 Bcm last month, with demand in the region also likely dampened by warmer-than-usual temperatures in January.

Supplies via TurkStream had been as high as 46 million cu m/d in mid-December, the S&P Global data showed, as cold weather took hold across Europe during the month.

Two of the main beneficiaries of gas via TurkStream are Serbia and Hungary, which both still have relatively close ties with Moscow. Gas via TurkStream is also delivered to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Gazprom updates

Russia's Gazprom, meanwhile, appears to have stopped publishing regular updates on its gas production and supplies to non-CIS markets since the end of 2022.

In recent years Gazprom has supplied data every two weeks on its production and exports.

In 2022, its production totaled 412.6 Bcm, while it delivered 100.9 Bcm to non-CIS countries.