US LNG supply continues to dominate European imports in 2024

The United States continues to dominate European LNG imports market share in 2024 after contributing the most volumes toward European imports in 2023, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

European delivered LNG imports stand at 21.67 million mt in 2024 as of Feb. 29, which represents around 17% of the volumes delivered in 2023, according to S&P Global data. The main supply sources in 2024 were the US, Russia, Algeria and Qatar. Of the current total in 2024, around 54% originated from the US. This compares with the US accounting for around 44% of total European imports in 2023 over the same period.

"The United States was again the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe (EU-27 and the UK) in 2023, accounting for nearly half of total LNG imports, according to data from CEDIGAZ," the US Energy Information Administration said in a report Feb. 29. "Last year marks the third consecutive year in which the United States supplied more LNG to Europe than any other country: 27%, or 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), of total European LNG imports in 2021; 44% (6.5 Bcf/d) in 2022; and 48% (7.1 Bcf/d) in 2023."

The report added that Europe's LNG import, or regasification, capacity is on track to expand to 29.3 Bcf/d in 2024, an increase of more than one-third compared with 2021, according to data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, or GIIGNL, and trade press.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 prompted European countries to halt most imports of natural gas from Russia via pipeline and reactivate development of previously dormant regasification projects as well as develop new projects. Germany is adding the most LNG regasification capacity in Europe: Developers added 1.8 Bcf/d in 2023 and plan to add 1.6 Bcf/d in 2024. In 2022 and 2023, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Finland and France increased their regasification capacity by a combined 3.2 Bcf/d. In 2024, we expect Belgium, Greece, Poland, the Netherlands and Cyprus to add a combined 1.8 Bcf/d of new capacity.

Although Europe saw record high imports in 2022 after the Russia-Ukraine war, imports cooled slightly into 2023. Milder temperatures between 2022 and 2023, resulted in Europe ending the heating season with ample inventories. This trend has continued thus far, with milder temperatures and depressed demand from the heating sector leading to supply to outmatch demand so far.

EU gas stocks stood at 63.13% of capacity as of Feb. 27, down 0.36 percentage point on the day, Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory data showed. This was higher than the levels seen last year on Feb. 28, when inventories stood at 61.06%.

Meanwhile, EU LNG inventories stood at 4.443 million cu m levels on the same date, according to data from Aggregated LNG System Inventory. This was higher than the 3.951 million cu m seen this time on Feb. 28, 2023.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the DES Northwest Europe Marker for April was assessed at $7.604/MMBtu Feb. 28, up 26.9 cents/MMBtu on the day, according to S&P Global data. The Platts Gulf Coast Marker for US FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days forward was assessed at $6.64/MMBtu on Feb. 28, up 29 cents on the day.