India announces SAF targets, biogas blending mandates

India's National Biofuels Coordination Committee has set a target to blend 1% of sustainable aviation fuel with jet fuel in 2027 and 2% in 2028, its petroleum ministry said in a statement Nov. 25.

These will apply to international flights initially, added the ministry, as the country looks to cut emissions of greenhouse gases from the aviation sector.

The targets were set after considering stakeholders' feedback, which included rising SAF capacities from new plants in the country and projections of jet fuel sales.

India had planned to use 1% SAF for its domestic commercial flights by 2025, which would require around 140 million liters of SAF per year to achieve, its oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said in May. adding that if the target is raised to 5% SAF blend, country would require around 700 million liter of SAF/ annum.

India has developed production of SAF using sugarcane molasses as indigenous feedstock and technology. According to government estimates, India consumes around 8 million mt of ATF and emitted around 20 million mt of GHGs in 2019 (pre-COVID). India has feedstock for potential production of 19-24 million mt/year of SAF, while the estimated maximum requirement of SAF in India, considering 50% blend, is around 8-10 million mt/year by 2030.

Platt assessed sustainable aviation fuel cost of production (PFAD) Southeast Asia at $1545.07/mt on Nov. 27, down 1.11% on the day, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed.

Besides SAF, the country is looking to ramp up ethanol production from maize and make it a "prominent feedstock," following an increase in yield and production of the crop in recent years, the ministry added in the statement.

The ministry -- alongside the country's Department of Agriculture and Department of Food and Public Distribution -- has initiated work to further develop high starch-yielding varieties, improve the quality of maize Dried Distillers Grain Solids, and faster registration of new seed varieties with high starch.

"The government is putting aggressive efforts to ramp up corn production and you will probably see results in another two years," said an ethanol buyer based in India.

The move comes after lower availability of sugarcane and better prices of sugar had hampered the Indian central government's plan to promote ethanol production, making its target of achieving 20% blending by 2025 harder to achieve.

Sugarcane crushing season has begun in India, but a weaker monsoon could lead to lower sugarcane availability, and this could make it more difficult to produce ethanol, market participants told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Maharashtra and Karnataka -- the two major sugar and ethanol-producing states -- have already reported lower cane availability compared with last year due to factors like unfavorable weather and farmers opting for other crops. With sugar prices at a high level, mills are also more incentivized to produce sugar than ethanol, according to S&P Global.

Meanwhile, oil marketing companies have received offers for about 5.59 billion liters of fuel ethanol for the 2023-24 (October-September) cycle after they had tendered 8.25 billion liters for the same period. Based on data seen by S&P Global Commodity Insights, a bigger quantity of ethanol was offered for the same cycle by distillers that rely on non-sugar feedstock, marking India's push to boost ethanol production from other feedstocks.

Biogas blending mandate

India will also introduce mandatory blending of compressed biogas in domestic natural gas and piped natural gas from April 2025 to reduce reliance on gas imports, the ministry said in the statement.

The mandate will be set at 1% of the total compressed natural gas and domestic piped natural gas consumption from 2025, and this will be raised gradually to 5% from 2028-29, the ministry added.

"CBG Blending Obligation will promote production and consumption of compressed biogas in the country," said Puri, adding that the move will encourage investments of around Rupee 375 billion ($4.5 billion) and help establish 750 compressed biogas projects by 2028-29.

A central repository body will monitor and implement the blending mandate based on operational guidelines approved by the minister, the ministry added.