COP29: No clear signs of peak for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, say scientists

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach records highs this year, with "no clear signs" of a peak despite a growth in clean energy, climate scientists said during the UN Climate Change Conference on Nov. 13.

Emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes are estimated to be as high as 37.4 billion mtCO2e in 2024, up 0.8% from the previous year, according to the latest report from the Global Carbon Budget project.

This comes as world leaders and policymakers have been tasked with adopting more measures at COP29 to accelerate global action, after countries pledged to "transition away from fossil fuels" at COP28 in Dubai last year.

"Despite progress in clean energy, growth in natural gas and oil use drives global fossil emissions up. Coal emissions are also projected to increase, but more marginally," the Global Carbon Budget said in a statement. "The projected growth in 2024 fossil emissions comes on top of a 1.4% growth in 2023 emissions, and further delays the anticipated and necessary peak in global emissions."

However, total CO2 emissions, which include both fossil fuel and land-use change, have plateaued in the past decade, and are projected to be 41.6 billion mtCO2e in 2024, data showed.

The projected 2024 growth is driven by a steady rise in gas emissions (up 2.4%), while coal and oil emissions rose marginally, by 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

Coal emissions will account for 41% of global emissions in 2024, while oil and gas emissions are set to account for 32% and 21%, respectively.

Emissions from the international aviation and shipping sectors are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below prepandemic levels.

Contrasting views

The Global Carbon Budget brings a number of scientific, climate and research institutes to help provide credible, scientific information to researchers, policymakers and civil society.

This analysis, however, differs from some views of industry analysts. Consultancy DNV recently said it expects emissions to peak in 2024 due to the growing deployment of five key clean energy technologies -- solar photovoltaic, wind, nuclear, heat pumps and electric cars.

In its latest Energy Transition Outlook, DNV said the expected reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2025 will be only marginal at 0.4%.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights have said that global greenhouse gas emissions could peak in just a few years, with a likelihood of a peak as early as 2025.

"Although several major economies are able to reach or very nearly reach their 2050 GHG targets, political and practical constraints prevent most countries from meeting their climate and net-zero goals," they said in a recent report.

Under Commodity Insights' Inflections base-case scenario, global emissions of GHG are expected to decline gradually from a peak of 50 billion mtCO2e in the mid-2020s, reaching approximately 30 billion mtCO2e by 2050.