COP29: Implementation of ambitious goals needed to keep world on 1.5 C pathway: IRENA

Achieving a tripling of global renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as agreed at COP28, would keep the energy transition on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, according to IRENA's World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024.

It is "virtually certain" 2024 will be the hottest year on record and surpass the 1.5 C global warming threshold, Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service said Nov. 11.

Released Nov. 11 at the opening of the UN Climate Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, IRENA's 1.5 C scenario offers a framework for governments to develop energy transition strategies that better align with climate policies to channel investment.

"We have reached crunch time. A robust global finance deal and the next NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] in 2025 are 'make or break' moments to keep 1.5 C alive. NDCs 3.0 provide the last opportunity this decade for countries to step up their stated ambitions," IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said in a statement.

As 1.5 C largely hinges on efforts by G20 countries, their NDCs must match global commitments to triple renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, IRENA said, adding that a climate finance agreement at COP29 was critical to ensure a just transition

Beyond peak emissions

Even if all COP pledges to date were to be implemented, a significant CO2 emissions gap would remain, the report shows.

Current country pledges put the world only on track for a 3% decline of energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 51% by 2050, it said.

Gaps also remain between political announcements and actual plans and policies. National targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewables by 2030, it said.

Investments in renewable power, grids flexibility and energy efficiency must increase dramatically to meet the goals.

There are also large geographical disparities in terms of renewable additions and investments, causing inequalities in the global energy transition.

Moreover, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in several of the biggest economies.

Toward tripling renewables

To meet the 1.5 C target, the G20 must reach 9.4 TW of installed renewables capacity by 2030, IRENA said.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast almost 5,500 GW of new solar and wind capacity added in the seven years to 2030, according to their latest Clean Energy Technology market outlook.

A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030 with renewable power generation to exceed coal from 2025, reaching around 17,000 TWh.

The expansion of renewables will facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels in the power sector, IRENA said.

IRENA's outlook predicts the share of fossil fuels in the global power mix to drop from 61% today to around 24% by 2030 and further to 4% by 2050.

Transitioning the current power system to renewables requires flexible networks, which can be provided by energy storage solutions, demand-side management, and sector coupling technologies and strategies.

Particularly, energy storage is one technical key enabler toward a fully decarbonized, 100% renewable power system, IRENA said.

"As countries prepare for the third round of NDCs in 2025, it is crucial that they align national energy plans and net-zero targets," it said.