UK falls behind climate commitments, loses global leadership role: report

The UK needs to nearly quadruple the rate of non-power sector emission reductions if it is to meet its 2030 goal of at least a 68% fall in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, the influential Climate Change Committee said June 28.

Continued delays in policy meant achievement of the UK's ambitious COP26 Nationally Determined Contribution was increasingly challenging, the CCC said in its annual report to Parliament.

"If the UK is to achieve its NDC, the rate of emissions reduction outside the electricity supply sector must almost quadruple, from 1.2% annual reductions to 4.7%," it said.

Key planks of the UK's Net Zero Strategy, however, had substantial lead times, such as hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage.

Progress in other areas was also too slow, including tree planting and the roll-out of low-carbon heating.

"There continues to be an overly narrow approach to solutions, which crucially does not embrace the need to reduce demand for high-carbon activities. A more realistic approach to delivery is needed. This cannot wait until after the next General Election," the committee said.

The UK has made a number of ambitious climate commitments, including the phase-out by 2030 of fossil fuel vehicles, decarbonization of the power system by 2035, installation of 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028, deployment at scale of hydrogen and, most recently, funding of up to GBP20 billion for carbon capture and storage.

Some 17% of new UK car sales were battery EVs in 2022, four percentage points ahead of the CCC's pathway, the report said.

"While the fast uptake of EVs is promising, there are slower signs of progress for crucial enablers. In particular, public chargepoint deployment now needs to scale up more quickly," it said.

In the power sector, meanwhile, provisional estimates suggest electricity supply emissions fell by 1% in 2022 versus 2021.

"Overall, we find that credible plans are in place for around 30% of the emissions reduction required by the Sixth Carbon Budget period," it said, noting the absence of an overarching stand-alone plan or strategy for delivering a decarbonized, resilient electricity system by 2035.

The UK installed 72,000 new heat pumps in 2022, well below the CCC's pathway projection for 130,000 installations in 2022, rising to 145,000 in 2023.

In comparison to neighboring countries, the UK ranked 21st out of 21 for per-capita installations of heat pumps in 2022, the CCC said.

Leadership loss

While UK greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 46% from 1990 levels, the CCC concludes the country has lost its clear global leadership position on climate action.

"We are no longer COP President; no longer a member of the EU negotiating bloc. Our response to the recent fossil fuel price crisis did not embrace the rapid steps that could have been taken to reduce energy demand and grow renewable generation," it said.

The government had backtracked on fossil fuel commitments, with approval for a new coal mine in Cumbria and support for oil and gas production via a 33rd licensing round.

"And we have been slow to react to the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan, which are now a strong pull for green investment away from the UK," it said.

Among priority recommendations in the report are: a re-balancing of the costs of electricity and gas; guidance for business use of carbon offsets; a narrowing of the role of hydrogen for heat; confirmation of a regulatory mechanism for fossil fuel boiler phase-out; and no airport expansion without a UK-wide capacity management framework.

UK greenhouse gas emissions were 450 million mtCO2e in 2022, including the UK's share of international aviation and shipping. This was an increase of 0.8% on 2021, but 9% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Aviation emission almost doubled as the sector recovered, while surface transport emissions were up 3% year on year.