Germany within reach of 2030 climate targets: federal agency

Germany was within reach of achieving its 2030 climate targets after greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 fell 10.1% to around 674 million mt, the biggest year-on-year drop since at least 1990, federal environment agency UBA said.

The UBA figures and its modeling of government policies to 2030 indicated the country was on track to cut its 2030 emissions by 64% (versus 1990) compared to a 49% estimate back in 2021.

Energy minister Robert Habeck said that "for the first time ever, the numbers show that Germany is on track to achieve our 2030 climate goals."

Habeck took credit for reducing the cumulative shortfall for 2021-2030 by over 1 billion mt compared to actual emissions until 2023 and projections to 2030 based on policies.

The 2024 monitoring report indicates a possible cumulative overshoot of 47 million mt for 2024 to 2030 compared to legally binding annual emissions reduction targets, the ministry said.

That also reduced the need for any additional overall measures with focus on implementation on individual sector targets, it said.

In the sector analysis, there was overachievement for the energy sector (175 million mt cumulated), industry (37 million mt) and agriculture (29 million mt).

However, transport sector emissions were projected to remain a cumulative 180 million mt above target, while the buildings/heating/cooling sector was seen some 32 million mt above target through to 2030.

Energy sector association BDEW said in that "the energy industry cannot compensate for the failings of other sectors."

Further out, the 2045 net zero target was not seen as achievable with the projected gap for 2040 also seen widening compared to Germany's climate law and last year's monitoring report, the UBA said.

Its report included policy measures approved until October 2023 with the impact of last November's court ruling on the climate and transition fund not yet included.

The annual monitoring report assumes a recovery in industrial production with annual GDP rising by 0.9% on average for 2024 to 2030, it said.

The framework input scenarios see the annual average price of EU carbon allowances rise from Eur82/mt ($89/mt) in 2023 to Eur122/mt in 2023.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast EUAs to average Eur54.50/mt in 2024, rising to Eur82/mt in 2025 as the impact of additional EUA supply from the inclusion of maritime emissions (78 million mt for 2024) and various REPowerEU support programs (96 million mt) wanes, according to their monthly report.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed EUA December 2024 at Eur59.39/mt on March 15.

Germany within reach of 2030 emissions targets

Source: UBA Monitoring Report 2024 (*preliminary)