John Kerry lauds Jaber's COP28 presidency as ADNOC CEO outlines clean energy strategy

US climate envoy John Kerry on Jan. 14 offered his full support of the UAE's decision to let the CEO of Abu Dhabi's national oil company preside over the upcoming COP28 UN Climate Change Conference – a controversial choice among many green groups, with the future of the world's energy mix in the balance.

Sultan al-Jaber, the first CEO to head the presidency of a UN climate summit, will do a "sound job" in overseeing the talks, set to begin November in Dubai, Kerry told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"I think he is a terrific environmentalist, and the UAE has been cutting new territory for 20 years or more," Kerry said in an interview.

Jaber, who also holds the roles of the UAE's industry and advanced technology minister and the UAE's special envoy for climate change, was the country's lead negotiator at the COP27 summit in Egypt in 2022. He was named COP28 president on Jan. 12, dismaying environmental activists who said the crucial talks should not be led by the head of a national oil company.

Jaber earlier on Jan. 14 made his first public speech since being named to the role, telling the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum that hydrocarbons will continue to be needed, but that the market will eventually need to place greater emphasis on the carbon intensity of oil and gas production.

"As long as the world still uses hydrocarbons, we must ensure they are the least carbon intensive possible," Jaber told the forum taking place in Abu Dhabi.

"We will work with the energy industry on accelerating the decarbonization, reducing methane emissions and expanding hydrogen. Let's keep our focus on holding back emissions, not progress."

The UAE is the first country in the region to ratify the Paris accord on climate change and pledge to hit net zero targets by 2050.

ADNOC plans to achieve net zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2050 and is spending $15 billion on clean energy and low-carbon projects by 2030.

Critics, however, note that the UAE is the third largest oil producer in OPEC. It pumped 3.04 million b/d of crude in December, according to the latest Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights, some 3% of world supply, and is aiming to capture more market share.

"Being so deeply embedded in the fossil fuel industry, the hosts of COP28 will need to be able to demonstrate what their Paris-compatible, post-fossil leadership will look like," said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, in a tweet.

However, Kerry, who was in Abu Dhabi to attend several energy conferences, said environmentalists should not be so quick to dismiss his appointment.

"If you heard his speech today, before you make any judgement, read his speech or listen to it," he said. "He was completely committed and is committed to a transition away from fossil fuel into the future. His country is working at that already and I think they're going to do a very sound job."

'Hard reality'

The UAE is pushing a two-pronged strategy of boosting its oil and gas production, while at the same time ramping up investments in clean energy.

ADNOC is in the midst of raising its oil production capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027 from over 4 million b/d now, as part of a $150 billion spending spree between 2023-2027. This spending is higher than the last five-year capex of $127 billion for 2022-2026.

CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in the UAE are forecast to rise to 2050 under S&P Global Commodity Insights' reference case.

Under a "two degree" case, these emissions would need to peak in 2024 in order for the country to get on trajectory with the UN Paris Agreement.

UAE emissions of 269 million mt CO2 in 2021 would rise to 338 million mt CO2 under the reference case, but only to 246 million mt CO2 under a two-degree scenario.

Jaber said the world "is way off track" in addressing climate change goals and implementing the Paris agreement, the international treaty adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris that was held on 2015.

"The world is playing catchup when it comes to the key Paris goal of holding global temperatures down to 1.5 degrees," Jaber told the Atlantic Council forum. "And the hard reality is that in order to achieve this goal, global emissions must fall 43% by 2030. To add to that challenge, we must decrease emissions at a time of continued economic uncertainty, heightened geopolitical tensions and increasing pressure on energy security."

The UAE will seek to have an inclusive COP28 that includes the participation of both the public and private sectors. COP28 also will need to come up with "game-changing solutions and real tangible outcome," he added.

"We want it to be a practical COP, a COP of action, a COP for all, a COP that raises ambitions, a COP that moves from goals to getting it done across mitigation, adaption, loss and damage and of course finance," Jaber said.