COP28: Pledge to triple renewables by 2030 'ambitious but achievable'

The tripling of global renewable generation capacity to around 11 TW by 2030 has become a key rallying cry of COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai.

Despite impressive gains in wind and solar deployment in recent years, however, the target requires an unprecedented acceleration in deployment from today's 2.3 TW total for the two fastest growing technologies.

According to analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, some 4.6 TW of solar and wind capacity are forecast to be added between now and 2030 with a projected $4.7 trillion investment.

"The Commodity Insights scenarios indicate that this is an ambitious target. Despite the significant increase in renewable deployment by 2030, installed capacity only doubles in our base case," said Anna Mosby, Head of Environmental Policy Analytics at S&P Global in a COP28 preview report Nov. 28.

The latest Clean Energy Technology forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights sees 3.4 TWac (4.2 TWdc) of solar capacity added over the next eight years. This would more than triple current installed solar capacity, the biggest increase across green technologies.

The global wind sector would see some 1.2 TW added to more than double installed capacity, including some 264 GW offshore wind by 2030.

Including hydro and other renewable energy sources, this would bring the 2030 total above 8 TW excluding storage, according to S&P Global.

In addition, 650 GW of mainly battery capacity is forecast to be deployed to help integrate volatile wind and solar generation profiles.

According to the International Energy Agency, tripling renewables by 2030 is an "ambitious yet achievable goal."

Achieving this would require "stronger policy actions by governments to ensure resilient technology supply chains, secure and cost-effective system integration of solar PV and wind, and renewables deployment in many more emerging and developing economies."

Solar's future growth looks relatively assured with global manufacturing capacity set to reach 1 TW/year in 2024, according to the IEA.

The wind sector's supply chain is far less assured, especially for offshore wind, where major western suppliers are facing financial losses amid demands for ever increasing turbine sizes.

Over 90 GW of wind capacity was installed globally across 55 markets in 2022, 14% lower than in 2021, according to S&P Global's Nov. 28 Global Wind Turbine Installation View.

Global offshore installations more than halved to 9 GW in 2022, driven by steep declines in mainland China and the UK.

"Western turbine makers saw a drop in installations in 2022 owing to lower activity in their core markets, while activity levels for Chinese OEMs stayed strong, driven by strong local demand," the report said.

Global Power Generation Mix (in TWh)

Source: IEA WEO 2023 (SP=Stated Policies. AP=Announced Pledges)