Ontario lays out plan for additional nuclear, hydro, gas power generation to meet growing demand

Ontario Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce has launched a plan to invest further in nuclear, hydro and gas power generation, as part of a goal for the province to meet future demand and grow its energy exports.

"Ontario will position itself to not just meet that domestic demand, but where it makes sense for the province, and is in the best interests of ratepayers, to exceed it," the Oct. 22 report from the minister's office said.

The Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) expects the province's electricity demand to increase by 75% by 2050. To meet forecast demand, the province needs to add 111 TWh of energy assets to its grid by 2050.

The demand is driven by datacenter growth and electric vehicle proliferation, according to the report. To meet its own domestic demand, the province is investing in four new small modular reactors, which would provide a total of 1,200 MW, at Ontario Power Generation Inc.'s 1,756-MW Darlington nuclear plant.

Additionally, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission recently allowed Ontario Power Generation to continue operating units 5–8 of its 2,584-MW Pickering nuclear plant until the end of 2026.

The report also pointed to C$1.6 billion worth of investments the provincial government has made to extend the lifespan of its hydroelectric fleet.

While Ontario's hydropower and nuclear fleet can generally provide the baseload power needed to meet minimum demand, natural gas generation is still needed in the short term for grid reliability, the report said. Currently, natural gas makes up 40% of Ontario's energy mix.

Ontario's government is pursuing a "pro-growth agenda that takes an all-of-the-above approach to energy planning, including nuclear, hydroelectricity, energy storage, natural gas, hydrogen and renewables and other fuels, rather than ideological dogma that offers false choices and burdens hardworking people and businesses with a costly and unnecessary carbon tax," Lecce said.

To support the planned energy growth, Lecce plans to introduce the province's first-ever integrated resource plan in early 2025. The plan is expected to turn the province into an "energy superpower" with the ability to meet growing domestic demand and "use our competitive advantage to export clean energy and technology across the continent and beyond," the report said.

Ontario as an energy exporter

Ontario has been a net energy exporter to neighboring jurisdictions since 2006. However, the report said that not all of these exports have been beneficial to the province, arguing that, at times, energy exports led to low and negative wholesale prices for participants in the electricity market.

To take advantage of future export opportunities, the IESO is conducting an analysis of the generation and transmission capabilities needed to serve both rising Ontario demand and exports.

"Many of Ontario's interconnected jurisdictions have an anticipated shortfall or a clean energy commitment to meet (i.e., New York, Maryland and Illinois) or both (i.e., Michigan and Minnesota), but are currently reliant on resources like coal which could be replaced with clean energy imports. The government believes that pursuing further export opportunities would require increasing generation," the report said.