New York regulators declare utilities prepared to meet winter demand

The New York State Public Service Commission expects the state's utilities will be able to meet demand and operate reliably in the upcoming 2024–2025 winter season.

"We are closely monitoring the utilities serving New York State to make sure they have adequate sources and supplies of electricity and natural gas to meet expected customer demands this winter. Further, the utilities have hedged approximately 70% of their estimated statewide full service electric residential energy needs to mitigate any electric market price swings this winter," Public Service Commission Chair Rory Christian said in an Oct. 16 statement.

New Yorkers' winter electricity bills should decrease slightly compared with the 2023–2024 winter season, according to the PSC. The average New York residential electricity customer using 600 kWh per month is expected to pay $58 per month, a 2% decrease from the year-ago winter average winter electricity bill.

The commission's forecast agrees with a recent New York ISO draft report that found the state's power system will be able to meet winter demand growth. According to the NYISO draft report, the grid operator added 935 MW of capacity since last winter and saw 60 MW of retirements.

The NYISO report relied on a forecast winter coincident peak load of 23,800 MW. The forecast figure is 1,938 MW less than the all-time New York seasonal power demand peak of 25,738 MW, which occurred in January 2014.

Arctic air blasts across the country in the 2013-2014 winter led to record power demand, price spikes and reliability concerns. As part of its 2024-2025 winter assessment, the PSC said it has remained in contact with major power plant owners in Southeast New York to ensure they have implemented lessons from the decade-ago scenario.

Winter reliability policies for the Southeast New York-based generation owners, which own about 12,000 MW of dual-fuel generation capability, include "having increased pre-winter on-site fuel reserves, having firm contracts with fuel oil suppliers, conducting more aggressive replenishment plans, and having more proactive pre-winter maintenance and facilities preparations."

New York leaders have struggled with maintaining winter grid reliability and remaining in compliance with the state's ambitious climate goals. The state relied on dual-fueled gas and oil generators to make it through an extreme December 2022 winter storm, NYISO President and CEO Richard Dewey said at a March industry conference.

"That's not a great long-term solution," Dewey said, citing efforts to comply with New York's climate legislation that requires a carbon-neutral state economy by 2050. "When you think about the variability in the intermittency of wind and solar, what is that carbon-free replacement?"

New York is required to source 70% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030 and reach a carbon-free power grid by 2040.

Gas utilities

The PSC expects gas bills to increase compared with the previous winter. The average residential customer using 700 therms of gas per month can expect to pay $202 per month, an 11% jump from last year.

Gas utilities in the state have hedged 52% of estimated customer needs. However, the PSC cautioned that gas customers "are not completely shielded from global market price volatility."