Solar is sole resource likely to meet global 2030 renewables target: report

Global renewable energy markets are falling short of reaching a target of tripling installed renewable power generation capacity by 2030, as agreed upon at the COP28 climate summit, a recent report found.

At the 2023 event in Dubai, 133 countries agreed to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 compared to 2022 levels and to double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, report, released on Oct. 11, noted that existing national plans and targets will only deliver half of the needed growth in renewable power by 2030.

IRENA's findings aligned with other recent reports, including from BloombergNEF and the International Energy Agency, which have concluded that nations are falling behind on the goal to triple renewables by 2030. The goal is part of what is known as the UAE Consensus.

The IRENA report found that tripling renewable energy capacity from the current 3.9 TW to 11.2 TW of power by 2030 requires adding about 1,044 GW per year from 2024 to 2030, equivalent to a 16.4% compound annual growth rate and an increase from the 16.1% growth required over 2022 to 2030. However, under existing national plans, renewables capacity is projected to fall short by 3.8 TW, or 34%.

If renewables capacity continues to grow at the 14% rate seen in 2023, it will end up 1.5 TW short of the tripling goal. Solar and wind will be crucial to closing this gap, according to the intergovernmental agency.

"Today, we're raising the alarm," IRENA Director General Francesco La Camera said in an Oct. 11 news release. "As the custodian for tracking progress of the UAE Consensus energy goals, we must flag significant gaps. The COP28 goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency are key enablers for our global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach, but we risk missing them. The next [Nationally Determined Contributions] must mark a turning point and bring the world back on track."

Solar is the only renewable energy technology on track to meet this tripling goal, IRENA said. In 2023, 473 GW of renewable energy was added, including 346.9 GW of solar, 114.5 GW of wind, 6.6 GW of hydropower and 5.2 GW of bioenergy, geothermal, concentrated solar power and marine energy combined. Onshore wind capacity additions significantly increased at 103.9 GW, almost matching the previous record of 105 GW in 2020.

Record investments still not enough

Investments in renewable capacity reached a record $570 billion in 2023 but failed to reach the $1.5 trillion needed each year between 2024 and 2030, the report said. Annual investments in solar are on track to meet the $397 billion required each year until 2030 to achieve the tripling goal.

However, investments to support deployments of other renewables are insufficient, IRENA said.

Renewable energy is generally the cheapest form of new electricity, but the geographic distribution of renewable energy additions is uneven, the agency added, with Asia, Europe, and North America accounting for about 85% of global installations in 2023 and Africa accounting for 1.6%.

In addition, the report found that investments in energy efficiency need to increase by almost seven times the current levels.

"While the momentum behind renewable energy is unprecedented, it's clear that we are still falling short of where we need to be by 2030," Global Renewables Alliance CEO Bruce Douglas said. "Industry has proven time and again that we can deliver -- and even surpass -- expectations when the right frameworks and policies are in place."