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Electric Power
October 10, 2024
HIGHLIGHTS
FPL, Duke, Tampa lead outages
Peakload to be down 36.1% on week
Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm, packing 120-mph winds, around 8:30 pm ET Oct. 9 on the US Gulf Coast and exited into the Atlantic around 4 am ET Oct. 10, leaving more than 3.4 million electric customers without power, cutting energy demand and prices.
The storm made landfall in Sarasota County, Florida, and exited into the Atlantic near Cape Canaveral as a Category 1 storm with 85-mph winds.
In Milton’s wake, power and natural gas demand was expected to plunge, with similarly sharp cuts in power and gas prices.
More than 3.4 million customers were without power around 1 pm ET Oct. 10, according to PowerOutage.us and various utilities, led by Florida Power & Light, Duke Energy Florida and Tampa Electric.
AccuWeather issued a preliminary estimate that Milton caused total damage and economic losses between $160 billion and $180 billion, "one of the most damaging and impactful storms in Florida history."
"A $225 billion-$250 billion loss from Helene and another $160 billion-180 billion from Hurricane Milton is close to a combined over $400 billion," said AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Joel Myers. "The GDP of the United States is $26 trillion, so this combined loss is nearly 2%, mainly focused in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025. That may wipe out all expected growth in the economy over that period.”
Around 2 pm ET, FPL President and CEO Armando Pimentel Jr. conducted an on-site update at Wellington, Florida, where a tornado wrought havoc Oct. 9. He noted that the storm initially cut service to about 1.8 million FPL customers.
"I want to assure all of our customers that our crews are out doing their jobs," Pimentel said. "We were out all last night restoring power between bands, and I can tell you this morning that as a result of all of the investment that we have put into our infrastructure, from hardening the poles to putting lines underground to putting technology in our integrated grid, we have already been able to restore close to 700,000 of our customers."
About 17,000 workers from 41 states are "on the job," Pimentel said, praising their hard work as they plan to "remain on the job 24 hours a day, seven days a week."
“We couldn’t have done it without you,” Pimentel said. “After Hurricane Helene just a couple of weeks ago, as we cleaned up our area here, we were fortunate enough at the end of that to be able to send some of our crews from FPL to some of the hardest-hit areas in the Southeast.”
With more than 985,000 customers offline as of 1 pm ET, Duke Energy Florida said Oct. 10: "As customers can safely return home, the company expects outage numbers to continue to increase." The company said it is assessing damage as weather and road conditions allow, and "will soon begin what is anticipated to be a lengthy restoration process."
"Hurricane Milton barreled through our state with a devastating intensity, leaving behind a trail of destruction that we, and many Floridians, can't yet fully comprehend," said Todd Fountain, Duke Energy Florida storm director. "Our crews will continue to assess the damage to our infrastructure and equipment, which is a critical first step in the overall power restoration process. As with any storm of this magnitude, we encourage our customers to prepare for extended outages, and we thank them for their patience."
The US Energy Information Administration reports that Florida load is forecast to peak at less than 29.5 GW Oct. 10, down 16.7 GW, or 36.1% from Oct. 3's actual peak of 46.1 GW.
Commodity Insights estimates Southeast natural gas power burn to barely top 4.9 Bcf Oct. 10, down 2.4 Bcf , or 30.8%, from Oct. 3's 8.2 Bcf.
Platts assessed Florida Gas Zone 3 at $2.325/MMBtu for Oct. 10 delivery, down 89 cents, or 27.7% from Oct. 3’s $3.215/MMBtu and down $1.65, or 41.5% from the average for that date over 2019-23. Trading on the morning of Oct. 10 showed prices off 1.9 cents from the previous day at $2.304/MMBtu for Oct. 11 delivery, down $1.006, or 30.4% from Oct. 4's $3.31/MMBtu, and down $1.711, or 42.6%, from the 2019-23 average of $4.015/MMBtu for Oct. 11 date.
Elsewhere along the US Gulf Coast, spot gas prices were down modestly Oct. 10 as cooler weather from the storm put a damper on regional gas demand. At the US benchmark Henry Hub, cash prices fell about 16 cents to $2.26/MMBtu. At Transco Zone 3 and Transco Zone 4, prices dropped about 5-10 cents to around $2.26, preliminary Commodity Insights settlement data showed.
On Oct. 10, natural gas production from the US Gulf of Mexico climbed about 50 MMcf on the day to nearly 1.9 Bcf/d, as output continued to hum along largely unaffected by Hurricane Milton. With the storm tracking south and east of most US offshore production platforms, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement has opted out of issuing its usual Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activity update.
Natural gas-fired generation supplies the vast majority of Florida’s power -- an average of 73.6% for the first nine months of 2024 -- and the state's central region has 26 such plants totaling more than 22 GW of capacity in Milton's path, EIA data shows.
On Oct. 10, at the typical peak output time for Florida's gas fleet, which is about 2 pm ET, the state's gas-fired generation was producing at a level less than 27.2 GW, down 7.8 GW, or 22.1%, from Oct. 3’s peak of almost 35.6 GW, US EIA data showed.
The storm likely also impaired Florida’s solar generation output, with dozens of utility-scale sites across the Central Florida path of the hurricane.
Solar power, both utility-scale and rooftop, has become a significant contributor to the state’s power supply -- an average of 8.9% over the first nine months of 2024.
As of about 2 pm ET Oct. 10, EIA data showed solar output below 1.4 GW, less than half of Oct. 3's peak solar output of 3 GW.
Eric Smith, Tulane Energy Institute associate director, said any storm-related damage would be "from the wind, not water."
“Even without hail, panels can be pulled from their support frames by 130-mph winds,” Smith said late Oct. 9. "Enclosed electronic equipment -- for example inverters in containers -- should be OK. Natural gas fired power plants should be able to take up the slack, just as it would do on a normal day after the sun sets. The availability of natural gas could be an issue if there is any major damage to the pipeline system or to overhead portions of the power grid.”
Utility | Total customers | Customers offline | % offline |
Florida Power & Light | 3,268,401 | 1,122,890 | 34.4% |
Duke Energy Florida | 1,995,441 | 985,210 | 49.4% |
Tampa Electric | 839,997 | 597,452 | 71.1% |
Lee County Electric Co-op | 251,349 | 147,228 | 58.6% |
Withlacoochee River Electric Co-op | 260,612 | 103,459 | 39.7% |
SECO Energy | 246,789 | 77,106 | 31.2% |
Orlando Utilities Commission | 282,106 | 70,180 | 24.9% |
Lakeland Electric | 138,664 | 61,298 | 44.2% |
Peace River Electric Co-op | 65,461 | 54,166 | 82.7% |
New Smyrna Beach Utilities | 30,591 | 26,907 | 88.0% |
Clay Electric Co-op | 195,523 | 23,392 | 12.0% |
Leesburg Electric Department | 27,747 | 12,243 | 44.1% |
Glades Electric Co-op | 18,501 | 11,268 | 60.9% |
Note: As of about 1 pm ET Oct. 10 | |||