US ELECTIONS: Trump win could slow offshore wind power development through legal action

Buildout of US offshore wind capacity is at stake in the US presidential election, analysts said, with a win by former President Donald Trump likely bolstering opposition to the sector and slowing permitting, while a win by Vice President Kamala Harris would continue the Biden administration's goal of building 30 GW by 2030.

Analysts expect plans for future offshore wind lease sales to likely continue under a Harris administration. They said the Interior Department would be expected to remain supportive of the technology given the Democrat’s focus on combatting climate change with the use of renewable energy.

The Biden administration approved on Sept. 5 the Maryland Offshore Wind Project with over 2 GW of capacity – the country’s 10th commercial-scale offshore wind power project approved under this administration.

White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi called the latest approval "a total game-change from the zero projects approved before President Biden and Vice President Harris took office,” saying that it shows the “tremendous progress” being made with things like port infrastructure improvements and new tax credits to more efficient permitting that will “continue turbocharging this industry.”

Under a second Trump administration, some analysts expect the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to shift focus to solely conventional resources, such as offshore extraction of oil and natural gas. Experts do not expect Trump to rescind the existing offshore wind leases. Instead, they see him ordering the Justice Department and other agencies to essentially agree with opposing parties in court where commercial anglers and other petitioners are opposing the wind farms. But industry and state-level momentum could overcome such opposition.

In many of these legal cases, plaintiffs accuse BOEM of moving too fast to secure the leases without studying the impacts of the wind projects on the fishing industry and endangered wildlife. The plaintiffs, in many cases, want the courts to remand the environmental reviews back to BOEM for further study. This would inevitably slow the offshore wind lease and construction license approval process. Petitioners in many of these cases are also calling for injunctions against the projects.

The non-partisan ClearView Energy Partners consulting firm has begun evaluating which steps a new Trump administration could take to block offshore wind. Two scenarios would emerge, said Timothy Fox, ClearView’s power sector managing director, in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“If Trump wins, we’ve laid out a few scenarios that we call the ‘refocused scenario’ and the ‘retaliate scenario,’” he said.

Fox calls the refocused scenario “the best-case scenario outcome” under a Trump administration. Under this scenario, the US Department of Energy “and indeed all the agencies would refocus their priorities toward conventional resources without necessarily trying to diminish what has been accomplished for the renewable resources, which have been the preferable approach for the Biden administration.”

Under the "retaliate scenario," Fox sees a second Trump administration reversing projects that were implemented by the previous administration. This would occur by engaging the courts and agreeing with those challenging the lease sales and the offshore wind project approvals. A number of lawsuits challenging offshore wind projects in the Northeast will be going through the court briefing phase just ahead of the November elections.

For example, the right-wing Heartland Institute begins briefing the US Court for the District of Columbia Circuit in September seeking to block Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, arguing that BOEM erred in approving the wind project without adequately assessing its impacts on the endangered North Atlantic right whale. This lawsuit if left undecided by the time Trump is sworn in could give the 47th president added leverage to delay the largest offshore wind project in the United States.

“Part of that judicial review would … [be] to voluntarily remand,” Fox explained. Once Trump takes office, Justice Department lawyers could take the lawsuits being brought by petitioners and agree with the arguments, voluntarily agreeing to remand the offshore wind approvals under the Biden administration back to Interior for further review.

Although it is possible to just rescind the project approvals, the more likely option is that the Trump DOJ petitions the courts to send the project approvals back to the agency for reconsideration, Fox said.

“Once Trump gets into office, we can see an aggressive slowdown or even a pause of further permit reviews or further lease sales,” he added.

There are also administrative actions that may be ripe for Trump to take up once in office that would delay projects pending further analysis.

The commercial fishermen groups Responsible Offshore Development Alliance and the New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association in August petitioned Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Director Kevin Sligh to continue to prohibit Avangrid’s Vineyard Wind project from generating power until specific conditions are met.

Vineyard Wind has become the focal point of several groups looking to walk back Interior’s offshore wind approvals. The project had been generating power from 10 operating turbines until one of the GE Vernova turbine blades imploded, creating a debris field impacting the Massachusetts towns of Nantucket and Cape Cod. The groups want BSEE to maintain its current suspension order on the project until a number of conditions are met, including a wholesale review of all planned wind projects to ensure against any further implosions.

It also wants BSEE and partner agencies to conduct a review to identify whether changes are needed to the offshore wind permitting process.

“There’s been a lack of science … with a lot of unknowns that need to be addressed,” said Jerry Leeman, the CEO for NEFSA, in an interview with Commodity Insights.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Supporters focus on industry momentum

Despite potential legal setbacks under a second Trump administration, some market observers point to the considerable momentum toward offshore wind power development that has been built under the Biden administration and the strong role that states play in advancing the industry.

The Biden-Harris administration's approvals of offshore wind projects have “spurred active supply chain development” with thousands working in American factories and shipyards in all corners of the country, Stephanie Francoeur, senior vice president of marketing and communications at offshore wind trade group Oceantic Network, told Commodity Insights in an email.

Francoeur added that tens of billions of dollars are being invested into coastal and heartland communities – “including just over $1 billion last month alone in factories in Texas, Virginia, and Maryland.”

“Today, four commercial-scale projects are under active installation putting ports and vessels to work from Virginia to Massachusetts. Offshore wind's momentum continues building too, with unrelenting state demand pushing the industry forward and every new job created building confidence and support in communities across the nation," she said.

For example, New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, an aggressive climate law, mandates that the state install 9 GW of offshore wind power capacity by 2035. The law also calls for 70% electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and a 100% emissions-free power sector by 2040. Offshore wind power is a major part of the plan to reach those targets.

“From creating the most successful offshore wind industry in the country to our investments in a sustainable electric grid, we are committed to being a national leader in protecting our climate – and we won’t stop until we’ve created the best possible future for our children,” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a Sept. 5 statement.