CERAWEEK: Public perception changes, tech innovation seen as keys to tripling nuclear by 2050

Industry members on March 19 discussed pathways to successfully tripling nuclear power by 2050, a goal set at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference.

The sheer scale of the COP28 goal raises challenges for the nuclear industry, speakers on a CERAWeek by S&P Global conference panel said.

"We're talking about a terawatt of new nuclear by midcentury," Energy Futures Initiative CEO Ernest Moniz said.

Meeting the goal will require additional countries to embark on nuclear investment, speakers said. Countries in Africa, South America and Central America are expressing serious interest in adopting nuclear, not only for electricity but for increased energy autonomy, World Nuclear Association Director Sama Bilbao y Leon said.

Many of these countries will be looking to more experienced nuclear countries for resources, infrastructure support and an experienced workforce, Bilbao y Leon said.

Also, speakers highlighted an abundance of uranium, which could allow countries to not depend on outside sources for energy. TerraPower Chief Financial Officer Marcia Burkey drew comparisons to Germany relying on Russian natural gas prior to the war in Ukraine.

COP 28 was overall "very successful" for nuclear, which is the strongest candidate for "firm, carbon-free power," Moniz said.

"It's always been the case that in order to decarbonize our electricity grid and to double electricity sales in our country by 2050, we need nuclear power," US DOE loan office representative Jigar Shah said.

Pragmatic approaches

The discussion around nuclear development is becoming increasingly pragmatic, altering public perspectives, speakers said.

Innovation in smaller reactors by advanced tech companies has revised low growth projections in the nuclear space, Moniz said. Innovations in the space that increase the safety and simplicity of projects also help with public perception, Burkey said.

TerraPower is breaking ground on the non-nuclear portion of its 345 MW reactor this summer, Burkey said. She said the reactor can be upgraded to 500 MW of output.

The smaller size of the reactor reduces the use of nuclear-grade concrete and steel, allowing the reactor to be deployed more quickly, she said. The coal conversion plant is the first in a series, with five additional plants slated for Utah, she said.

These coal conversion plants will take advantage of the existing workforce in the shuttering coal plants, Burkey said. Tapping into this existing expertise is key to building and sustaining a nuclear workforce, speakers said.

The nuclear power industry must figure out how to tap into the expertise of the established oil and gas industries, Shah said. The nuclear industry is "not as confident" or established, he said.

"We actually have a more clear supply chain in other sectors," Shah said. "With nuclear, some of those pieces have not yet come fully together."

Finding demand

The discussion comes as Google, Microsoft and Nucor announced March 19 a collaboration to accelerate the development of breakthrough technologies, including advanced nuclear projects, according to a Nucor statement.

The agreement also includes next-generation geothermal, clean hydrogen, energy storage projects and more, according to the statement. Advanced clean electricity tech is necessary to fill gaps created in wind and solar generation, the statement reads, citing an International Energy Agency study.

The collaboration aims to reduce risks and help secure financing for these breakthrough technologies by aggregating demand from the three large energy buyers, the statement reads.

"Pooling demand enables buyers to offtake larger volumes of carbon-free electricity from a portfolio of plants, reducing project-specific development risk, and enables procurement efficiencies and shared learnings," according to the statement.