New York's Climate Impact Assessment identifies power system challenges, solutions

The technical chapters of New York's Climate Impact Assessment released Feb. 2 find that climate change hazards and impacts on the state's energy system mainly stem from increasing temperatures, precipitation changes, sea level rise and storms with high winds, and potential mitigating solutions include hardening current energy infrastructure, new business models, and demand-side management programs.

"NYSERDA [New York State Energy Research and Development Authority] is proud to have worked with a wide network of local, regional and national experts to produce this science-based study that can be used as a planning resource to incorporate resiliency and adaption strategies," Doreen Harris, NYSERDA president and CEO, said in a statement from the governor's office.

"As our state continues to advance zero-emissions policies and support innovative technologies that will help combat climate change, we also need to work together to lessen the social and economic impact of extreme weather events on our communities," Harris said.

The assessment was conducted as part of implementing New York's aggressive climate law, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which includes mandates to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and 85% by 2050 from 1990 levels, as well as achieving a zero-emission power sector by 2040, including 70% renewable energy generation by 2030, and economywide carbon neutrality by mid-century.

"Reliable energy systems are easy to take for granted, but many aspects of these systems are vulnerable to weather and climate hazards," according to findings from the technical workgroup that produced the assessment.

The top finding is that climate change is already constraining some energy supply resources and stressing transmission and distribution systems through extreme heat, changes in precipitation, and increasing storm intensity.

Safe and reliable energy system operations can be helped by ongoing assessment of climate impacts, responsive investments, and changes to system design and operation, according to the assessment.

The state has been investing heavily as part of implementing the climate law. Some of these investments include over $40 billion in 64 large-scale renewable energy and transmission projects across the state, $6.8 billion to reduce building GHG emissions, $3.3 billion to scale up solar power, nearly $3 billion for clean transportation initiatives and over $2 billion in New York Green Bank commitments, the governor's office said.

Power demand, supply changes

Climate change is altering power demand patterns, and this is expected to continue evolving over the coming decades.

Energy demand shifts can strain power supplies and delivery, particularly during peak demand periods, "and may lead to infrastructure failure and energy price increases," the assessment said.

Potential solutions to these reliability risks include investments in new energy infrastructure, hardening current energy infrastructure, new business models, and demand-side management programs.

Achieving the climate law mandates will shift the power supply mix toward a renewable energy-dominated power generation fuel mix that will rely much more on weather conditions like solar insolation, wind levels, and water availability.

Concentrating power supplies in these categories exposes the grid to a new set of "weather influences" that includes high wind, low wind, lack of sun, extreme precipitation, and drought, the assessment said.

"These factors have little impact on the electric supply of New York today but will have a much greater impact when the state relies more on renewable resources," according to the study.

Solutions to this challenge can include demand-side behavior changes, operational adjustments, investments in system capabilities and capacities, modified business models, and "new technologies that are attuned to the changing energy system" and can help moderate the uncertainty due to climate change, the study said.

"New Yorkers know too well the devastating impact of storms, extreme heat and flooding due to our changing climate," Governor Kathy Hochul said in the statement.

"We are arming New Yorkers, businesses, municipalities and industries with the information and tools needed to improve community adaptation and resilience while continuing to lower emissions," Hochul said.