US greenhouse gas emissions dropped about 1.9% in 2023: Rhodium Group

US greenhouse gas emissions fell an estimated 1.9% in 2023 from 2022 levels, driven largely by an 8% decline in the power sector, according to preliminary data from the Rhodium Group.

The drop followed two years of emissions growth as the US economy recovered from the pandemic. The development was significant because it occurred amid a projected 2.4% increase in the its gross domestic product, the Rhodium Group said in a Jan. 10 assessment.

"In 2023, the US experienced something it hasn't since before the COVID-19 pandemic: a growing economy paired with shrinking greenhouse gas emissions," the think tank wrote.

"We'll be watching to see if the US can sustain and accelerate its 2023 emissions decline in 2024 and beyond," Rhodium posted on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter.

The US Environmental Protection Agency will finalize its greenhouse gas inventory for 2023 in spring 2024. If the EPA confirms the Rhodium Group's estimates, the US will have reduced its emissions just over 17% since 2005, far from what is needed to halve the its carbon footprint by 2030, the report said.

Economywide emissions must now drop 6.9% annually between 2024 and 2030 for the US to meet its 2030 pledge under the Paris Agreement on climate change, according to the Rhodium Group's estimates. Deep reductions are needed globally to avoid a sea level rise and other impacts from climate change, scientists have said.

The yearslong decline in US coal generation supported the power sector's lead in emission reductions, but the Rhodium Group also warned about "some ominous signs" emerging in the industry. For instance, natural gas-fired generation grew more than twice as fast as power production from renewable sources in 2023, the report said.

Record natural gas and oil production drove a 1.2% growth in industrial emissions during the year, the researchers said. The US Energy Information Administration projected in its Jan. 9 short-term energy outlook that US crude oil and dry natural gas production will hit new records in 2024 and 2025.

Republican lawmakers criticize EPA rule

Lawmakers questioned Jan. 10 a top EPA official over the agency's recently finalized methane regulations mandating oil and gas producers to detect and prevent equipment leaks, end flaring and curb "super-emitting" events.

Some Republican members of Congress are concerned that the new rule, complemented by provisions under the landmark Inflation Reduction Act that passed in 2022 along party lines, will raise energy prices while doing little to reduce US or global emissions.

"The EPA is moving ahead with an aggressive 'keep-it-in-the-ground' approach, one that will increase energy costs for Americans, eliminate good-paying jobs, and harm communities across the country that benefit directly from the industry," Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said at the Jan. 10 hearing.

"The EPA must be transparent with Congress and the American public for how these new regulations would compromise US energy security and affordability," McMorris Rodgers added.

Joe Goffman, principal deputy assistant administrator for the EPA's Office of Air and Radiation, said the agency has estimated that the regulation will boost oil drillers' production costs by only about 25 cents/b produced.

Goffman disputed the notion that oil and natural gas production would significantly decline under the methane regulations. The EPA expects the new rule to reduce oil output by about 41.4 million barrels by 2038, about 1% of total oil production. Natural gas production would drop about 0.75%.

In passing the Inflation Reduction Act, Congress ratified the EPA's authority to take action under the Clean Air Act to tackle methane emissions while providing more than $1 billion to help operators comply with the mandates, Goffman said.

"We think that rule actually strengthens the oil and gas industry and strengthens American global leadership," Goffman told lawmakers. "This rule will promote technology innovation that will be used worldwide. I believe you ... pointed out that the US oil and gas sector is already leading the world in terms of its methane efficiencies and this will build on that."

Methane currently accounts for about one-third of the warming from greenhouse gases and 11% of total US emissions in 2021, according to the EPA.